Religion Unplugged published an analysis arguing the LDS Church faces a significant and worsening retention problem. The piece compares religious traditions to styrofoam cups with changing water levels—and finds the Mormon cup is draining faster than it's filling.

The author points to declining activity rates, members leaving in higher numbers, and convert retention struggles as evidence the church's traditional growth model is faltering. While raw membership numbers continue to rise due to high birth rates and continued missionary work, the analysis suggests the church is losing the battle to keep members engaged, especially among younger generations and women. The piece describes a "volatile environment with constant pressure to rise or fall" facing all religious institutions.