Welcome and Host Introductions

John Dehlin [00:00:03] Hello, everyone, and welcome to another edition of the Mormon News Podcast, 2026 Midterm Elections Edition. I am your host for today, John Dehlin. It is November 6, 2026. I'm here with Meggan Hayes from Generally Unquotable. Hey, Meggan.

Meggan Hayes [00:00:23] Good morning.

John Dehlin [00:00:24] And what's it like to wake up? What time did you wake up this morning?

Meggan Hayes [00:00:29] Oh, about 5:30.

John Dehlin [00:00:30] Yeah, because I was up at like, 3 or 4, and I'm in the bathtub and I'm like, I think we need to do two episodes. And so I'm texting like, megan, when you wake up, give me a call. I think we're gonna do two today. What's that like to wake up thinking, you know, what today is gonna be and then have someone throw a wrench in all of it?

Meggan Hayes [00:00:52] Well, it's really. It's exciting. But the first quote that came to mind is the one from Finding Nemo where the. They're in the depths of the ocean and they see that little light and they're feeling all great, and then the mouth lights up of that

John Dehlin [00:01:06] shark. Shark.

Meggan Hayes [00:01:08] It's just a common quote in our family where we say, good feelings gone, but not really. No. I went on my walk, I got ready, and then I was like, okay, I'm going to make a bunch of slides.

John Dehlin [00:01:21] Well, for those of you who don't know, in the United States of America, there was an election on Tuesday, November 2nd.

Meggan Hayes [00:01:31] I think everyone knows.

John Dehlin [00:01:34] And so, yeah, let me give a little disclaimer. Is that okay? And then I want to hear yours, Meggan.

Hosts' Personal Political Journeys

Meggan Hayes [00:01:41] Okay,

John Dehlin [00:01:42] so we're going to talk politics for the next two hours. And it is very, I don't know, controversial in my mind or delicate or. Or something, because when Trump was elected the very first time in what, 2016, And then when January 6th happened, which would have been 20. What, 2020. 2021, I did a few episodes on Mormon stories about Trump, about fascism. I did some, like, ex Mormons who are Democrats, ex Mormons who are conservative.

John Dehlin [00:02:35] And then for a long time, I just stopped covering politics at all. And I just want to give a tiny bit of explanation for that. So a little bit of background really quick. I was raised Republican. I was a Rush Limbaugh super fan in college, I was a political science major. I worked on Capitol Hill for a congressman who was a Republican congressman from Houston as an internship for Washington seminar. And if you cut me in 1993, I bled Republican red.

John Dehlin [00:03:09] Then I went through my faith crisis and also became more of a feminist, more LGBT affirming and My politics swun super blue. And I was a super blue Democrat voting liberal for many, many years. And I think that's not going to be news to a lot of my viewers and listeners.

John Dehlin [00:03:34] And it seemed like for the first 15 or so years of Mormon stories, the most common narrative was you lose your faith, you leave the church, and you become liberal and Democrat in your politics in the United States. And that was kind of how a bunch of us were operating on the Mormon and ex Mormon Internet and even in progressive Mormon spaces. And then I started getting emails and texts from people saying, john, not all ex Mormons are woke. John, not all ex Mormons are liberal. John, not all ex Mormons are Democrat. There are ex Mormons that are conservative, that are Republican, that like Trump, that like maga.

John Dehlin [00:04:18] And I'm tired of the ex Mormon community only representing one political angle. And for a long time I just ignored that. And then once I saw politics ripping Our culture apart, January 6, my own family, Trump getting reelected. And I saw the backlash to what I think even AOC is going to call Woke 1.0. And there was a backlash not just in broader US political discourse, but there was also a backlash in Mormonism and in ex Mormonism. There was a backlash to, let's just call it progressive and ex Mormon Wokeism 1.0. I realized that a couple things were really important. One was I wasn't managing Mormon stories in a way that was inclusive.

John Dehlin [00:05:12] I was just assuming everyone was on one side of the political equation. And that's not core to my values. I want more. I wanted Mormon stories to feel welcoming and acceptable to everyone who was going through Mormon stuff or high demand religion stuff. And I also realized that there were excesses on the right, but there were excesses on the left, and there were excesses in Republicanism, but there's fraud and corruption in democratism. And that's not to say, you know, that there's moral equivalence there at all, but that there's problems everywhere. That's just a fact.

John Dehlin [00:05:54] And there's ex Mormons everywhere along the spectrum. And then even within ex Mormon and liberal Mormon discourse, there were excesses on the left that almost destroyed me and Mormon stories and in my opinion, the ex Mormon community in many, many ways. And so it's been a lot. And my way of dealing with it over the past several years has been to ignore it and try to never talk about it so that politics never becomes a way that, you know, Mormon, you know, people can't get for Mormon stories what they need to process their faith crisis to find healing growth out of high demand religions or Mormonism.

John Dehlin [00:06:41] However, let's just face it, politics affects everything and policy affects everything. And these are important issues and they're probably they've never been more important than right now. And this election was deeply meaningful and significant, not just religiously, but for Mormon culture, for Utah, for Idaho, for Nevada, for Arizona, for our country. And yes, I'm going to say for the LDS Church. And so I'm going to just with all that disclaimer, I'm going to say one final thing and that's that for the next hour and 45 minutes, we're going to talk politics and Mormonism and I'm going to just try and make a promise. Even though I've got my own views, my own opinions, I want everyone to feel respected.

John Dehlin [00:07:29] We're not going to be spiking any footballs. We're not going to be supporting one party over another. We're not going to be mocking or demeaning anyone along the political spectrum, any party affiliation, any any specific positions, political or otherwise. But we're going to try and talk about the interface between politics in the United States and Utah, Idaho, Arizona and Nevada, how it affects political Mormon politicians, how it affects the Utah state legislature and Utah culture and politics, and how it might affect how it's affecting the membership, how it's showing up in the membership and how it might or might not impact the future of the LDS Church and of ex Mormonism.

John Dehlin [00:08:25] And we're going to try and cover all that in about two hours. And then after that we're going to stop, do another episode and we're going to cover the week's Mormon news that wasn't political. And we're going to try and do all that today and we're going to ask you all to be resilient, to be tough, to not be snowflakes on either side. If Meggan and I show a bias or say something insensitive, know that we're doing our best to be as thoughtful and as professional as we can. But we're not going to be trashing on any side and we're going to try and be kind and favorable to all without avoiding super important topics.

John Dehlin [00:09:07] Now I'll shut up. Meggan, what do you want to add in terms of your history and what how you want to approach the next hour and 45 minutes?

Meggan Hayes [00:09:17] Yeah, John, I had a similar trajectory as you like. Other than when I was a kid and even in high school and college, I didn't pay attention to politics at all. Like, I knew I was Mormon, I knew I voted Republican and that I should vote, and that was it. So I registered to vote. I'd go to the polls. I didn't research anybody. I mean, this is embarrassing, but it's true.

Meggan Hayes [00:09:40] And I voted Republican. And then when I started getting into my faith crisis, started looking into feminism, and, you know, similar to what you said, then I took a hard swing left after I left the church, and I found myself, like, policing language to an extent that I couldn't hardly have friendships with people. And it got really difficult because my politics was getting in the way of connection with people.

Meggan Hayes [00:10:14] And. Yes. And so now I am coming to a more empathetic place in my beliefs, a more moderate place of my politics. And I live in Texas. And the coolest thing has happened in this election for Texas, because one of the people who won the election, James Talarico, is very Christian and very Democrat. And it has been amazing to listen to him speak, to be someone who really sounds like he is embracing the values that Jesus taught and to be Democrat.

Meggan Hayes [00:10:59] And so I think he has tried to bring together all of the things that have been polarizing us and come to a middle ground where he can say, I believe in Jesus, I believe in love, I believe in equity. And so that's the political place that I want to come from. I don't have the same Christian background that James Talarico does, but I really think that if we can kind of look at his example as a way to bridge this gap that we have seen in politics, it's going to benefit everybody, actually. So I read the book. I think it was in Leaders Eat Last.

Meggan Hayes [00:11:37] I don't know if you've ever read that book. So good. I am pretty sure that's the book it was in where the author talks about how politics functioned before we got so polarized. So, like before the Trump era on the Hill, after the day was over, most of the people who worked there also lived in the area. And Republicans and Democrats spent time together outside of work. They went out to eat together, and they had family get togethers, and they were friends.

Meggan Hayes [00:12:11] And how that kind of stopped happening in recent years. And I would love for us to go back to a place where we find common ground. We realize that our country is struggling, and we elect people, regardless of their political persuasion, who are leaders, who have proven track records, who want to help people. Because I think something that we can probably all agree on is that things have been a little bit scary in the country and financially, a lot of Us are struggling because of what's going on. So that's where I'm coming from.

John Dehlin [00:12:49] Amen. And yeah, I hope it's clear to our viewers and listeners that's not an endorsement of James Talarico at all. It's a really important point that even the left has turned towards faith as something that they don't want to completely cede to Republicans. And that's interesting. And it's going to have a Mormon impact. And I was just going to add, Meggan, that Adam Hamilton is a United Methodist pastor and a founder of a church in Kansas, and he was elected in Kansas. And as I understand it, Kansas hasn't elected a senator who is Democrat for like 100 years, but he, like Talarico, was a Democrat who embraced faith.

John Dehlin [00:13:36] And again, viewers and listeners, this episode is not about yay Blue, yay Democrats at all, but it is about the interface of politics and religion as it affects Mormons. And so it's a theme that is going to come up again and we're going to be talking about Mitt Romney, we're going to be talking about Mike Lee and others. And so it's just strap on your armor and let's have thoughtful, informed, engaged conversations, Meggan and our viewers and listeners. Okay. Anything else we should say as disclaimer before we jump in, or did we get a pretty good.

Why Mormon Stories Discusses Politics

Meggan Hayes [00:14:15] Yeah, I think we did. Well, we just want to be able to talk about this because like you said, politics affects all of us. And when we don't discuss it, when we don't talk about it, when we don't have thoughtful conversations, we are leaving it up to other people to make all those decisions for us. Like, we need to be able to sit down and talk about it and stay curious about things so that I can change my mind about things. If I need to, like, be the opposite of what I was when I was 20 years old and a young mom and Mormon and I'm like, I'm just going to go to the polls as a Republican.

Meggan Hayes [00:14:51] Like, let me look at the different issues. Let me talk to about them, talk to about the issues with people that I trust so that I can change my mind or I can help someone else understand something. Like, I don't, I don't need to be polarized, but I do need to have conversations if I'm going to learn.

John Dehlin [00:15:09] Yeah. And I think going forward, we're getting feedback from Trevor that we've already done 15 minutes of disclaimers. And that's true. I think I'm just warning viewers and Listeners, we're going to start talking about politics again on Mormon stories, and I want to set the tone for that and give a little bit of history for that, but I don't think we're going to be able to avoid it, especially now that Utah has lost its super majority in its legislature. So without any further ado, here's, here's the, here's the thumbnail that you came up with before we even came up with the previous one. Mormons after the midterms. Utah politics, generational change in Mormonism. So, Meggan, take it away. Let's talk about the election in the midterms as it relates to Mormonism.

Meggan Hayes [00:15:57] Well, there is a lot to talk about and I think. So if you go to the first slide, I think we'll just start with some of the more well known Mormon political figures. So we've got Mike Lee, John Curtis and Ben McAdams and also Mitt Romney, who kind of stand out. This slide is just a brief overview of where they stand. So Mike Lee was not on the ballot, but he did have thoughts about the midterms. John Curtis was also not on the ballot, but he came out in with some pretty pointed criticism about his own party, which is the Republican Party. And then Ben McAdams, who is a member and a Democrat. And we'll talk about kind of why he won, what that means.

John Dehlin [00:16:39] Okay, so we're going to talk about all three of those.

Meggan Hayes [00:16:41] Yes.

John Dehlin [00:16:42] Okay. Yes.

Meggan Hayes [00:16:43] And then also Mitt Romney.

John Dehlin [00:16:44] Okay, good, good, good, good. Okay. Okay. All right, let's start. John Curtis.

Notable Mormon Political Figures in 2026

Meggan Hayes [00:16:49] Yeah. So John Curtis. So

John Dehlin [00:16:50] he said senator. He's the senator that replaced Mitt Romney. Right? Okay. All right.

Meggan Hayes [00:16:55] Yes. He's a member of the church. He's in Utah. Utah Republican senator. And this is how he responded to the 2026 midterm losses of Republicans and by saying Republicans need to look in the mirror. Our party has steadily abandoned the conservative principles that once defined us. But if our response is to blame the media, the polls, or the voters will have learned absolutely nothing, we might start by looking in the mirror.

John Dehlin [00:17:22] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [00:17:24] Like, I just, I, I think he's mirroring kind of what we're saying here is like, let's stop focusing so much on what political party we are and focus on what's actually happening, how what's going on in government is affecting all of us, is affecting people who were already struggling financially, is affecting people who were already not being able to get housing, like, what's actually going on on the ground.

John Dehlin [00:17:53] So you, what's your grade of how, how much you like what he's saying?

Meggan Hayes [00:17:57] I love it. I love it. Because he's not afraid to say, this is my political party, this is who I identify with. And we might need to change some things. We might need to look around and see what's happened and be able to really give a hard look at what we're doing and maybe what we need to do differently.

John Dehlin [00:18:17] Yeah. I don't think it's going to be controversial to say that for the past 12 years, or let's say 10 years, Republicans have learned Republican politicians have come to be terrified of saying anything that could even be felt as critical of Donald Trump or of Trump's decisions, because Trump historically has had the power to make or break any other politician, and he's been able to show that in past elections.

John Dehlin [00:18:48] And so my memory, and Meggan, I don't know if you were following this, and I don't know if my memory is totally right. But, but, and again, this is not a partisan comment. I think I'm just describing facts, is I remember Donald Trump's son had a wedding recently.

John Dehlin [00:19:02] And in that wedding, it was like on some island, and it was discovered that some Russian oligarch paid for the wedding. And it's my understanding that that's when John Curtis first started saying, without, I think, naming Trump or naming the wedding necessarily.

John Dehlin [00:19:21] That's when I remember first started noticing that John Curtis was saying, hey, there's an ethical problem here. We Republicans need to remember our core values, remember what we're supposed to stand for, what our roots are. And I get those roots because again, I bled Republican red as late as 1995.

John Dehlin [00:19:45] So I get what he was saying there. And I was starting to think, huh, are we going to have a Utah Mormon senator who's one of the first voices to speak out publicly, even tangentially, against Mitt Romney and the moves of the Republican Party. Now, let's not forget that Mitt Romney was one of the only Republicans over the past, let's just say eight or so years who was willing to speak out against Trump. He voted, as I remember, voted to impeach Trump and lost his Senate seat because he probably knew that at some level he would have lost it if he had tried to keep it.

John Dehlin [00:20:32] And weirdly, that was the seat that almost went to Tim Ballard, but then, because Tim Ballard blew up, I think John Curtis got that seat. But there was also a Mormon. You can Google this, I'm forgetting his name, but there was a Mormon senator, I believe, from Arizona who also spoke up against Trump as a Republican and also lost his Senate seat and also had to retire early.

John Dehlin [00:20:58] And I remember talking about that years ago. And I think that's interesting that Mormons have been national Republican Mormon. A few Republican Mormon politicians have led the Republican Party in being willing to criticize Trump.

Meggan Hayes [00:21:18] Yes. And I'm just going to forewarn everyone. My neighbors are getting their lawn done again, so I will mute when I'm not talking, but

John Dehlin [00:21:26] did you not know who that was, that what senator, who that was? I thought at least some of my viewers or listeners would

Meggan Hayes [00:21:33] somebody say in the comments. I haven't. Okay. Anyway. Yeah,

John Dehlin [00:21:36] okay, well, so, so I'll just, I'll just end by just saying that, you know, it's kind of easy for Curtis to do this because he knows it's going to be four years until he runs for reelection. And so it's kind of cheap and easy for him to lead on, trying to set a different tone for Republicanism because he knows Trump will be four years long gone or at least two years long gone before he has to face a reelection. Jeff Flake. Jeff Flake was the Arizona. Thank you. Thomas Montgomery. Hey, Thomas. And others.

John Dehlin [00:22:17] Jeff Flake was the other Mormon Utah senator. Sorry, sorry. Mormon Arizona senator who paid a price for speaking out against Trump. So that's. Anyway, that's just a long way of saying I love, I, you know, I love the Mormon ness of Jeff Flake, Mitt Romney and John Curtis speaking truth to power. It's that old do what is right, let the consequence follow. Dare to do right, Dare to be true. Oh, say what is truth. Tis the fairest gem.

John Dehlin [00:22:49] That's the, that's the shit that caused me to get excommunicated. It's like Mormonism that got me kicked out of Mormonism. And it's fun to see it in some Republican Mormon politicians. Okay. Anything else you want to say about John Curtis before we move on? Meggan?

Meggan Hayes [00:23:09] Yeah, I just think it takes a certain level of integrity to stand up and say, this is my party, this is who I'm representing, and I'm okay if we're not perfect. Let's look at what we're doing. Let's make some changes. And absolutely. That it's. The Mormonism is coming out like the best of Mormonism. Right. The part that says do what is right, let the consequence follow. I'm going to stand up for love, for empathy, for what I think is right. I love it.

John Dehlin [00:23:40] Yeah. I'm just going to say also that I would have preferred Mitt Romney to Joe Biden and I would have preferred Mitt Romney to Trump.

Meggan Hayes [00:23:52] Same.

John Dehlin [00:23:53] Yeah, like I, and I, I actually registered as a Republican. I'm currently registered as Republican in Utah because John Huntsman Jr. Ran for governor again. And I wanted, I wanted, I would have loved to see John Huntsman Jr. Be governor again. And that's, you know, a lot of liberals or Democrats were furious at me for registering as a Republican. But in Utah, you can't vote in the primaries as a Republican unless you're a Republican. And the, the Democratic primaries have been worthless up until now and Democrats pretty much never get elected. So it's just the only way to have a voice in the primaries that, that matters is to, is to register as a Republican in Utah.

John Dehlin [00:24:42] So anyway, I just want my Republicans and conservatives out there to know I'm actually legally, technically a member of the Republican Party, but I also support moderates on either side of the aisle. I am not blindly partisan. Anyway, speaking of blindly partisan, let's go to the next slide.

Mike Lee, John Curtis, and Utah Senate Race

Meggan Hayes [00:25:01] Oh, Port, look how sad Mike Lee is. With Democrats set to take the Senate, Utah Senator Mike Lee is expected to lose his chairmanship of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Damon Can, Utah State University political scientist, said committees are a central part of the way Congress gets its business done. Why this matters, committee chairs control staff hearings and much of the legislative agenda. Lee will likely remain on the committee, but with less power as a ranking Republican. This is a concrete consequence of the Democratic Senate wave, even though Lee was not on the ballot.

John Dehlin [00:25:37] Okay, what are your thoughts on that?

Meggan Hayes [00:25:41] Well, so I am learning about this this morning.

John Dehlin [00:25:44] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [00:25:44] When I'm putting up the slide. So feel free to pontificate. I understand

John Dehlin [00:25:49] how committing. Is that what I do? That is what I do. It's fair. Keep going.

Meggan Hayes [00:25:55] Yeah, well, so I just, I understand how it works and how committees work, but I haven't looked at the Utah politics as much as Alaska where I used to live, and then Texas, where I am now.

John Dehlin [00:26:07] Well, the only, I haven't been. I didn't even know that Mike Lee was the chairman of that committee. All I've been paying attention to is how Utah has been losing. Like it seems like under Trump, some of our national monuments have been like de. Federalized. And it seems like there's been a lot of attempts or successful attempts at selling off or privatizing federal, protected federal land for commercial use. And that's, you know, other than that, like data centers have become huge in Utah and I'm imagining Lee has been involved in a lot of that net Sort of national parks, federal land and data centers kind of stuff. And I imagine he's frustrated to be losing a lot of the power that he. That he once had. Other. But he's also, like. His memes are like. They're pretty apocalyptic, right?

Meggan Hayes [00:27:14] Yeah. If you go back to that first slide, it showed what he put on X, which was a AI video of the Titanic singing. He put that during the.

John Dehlin [00:27:22] Oh, yeah. Okay. Like, on the day of. It's dark. It's a little.

Meggan Hayes [00:27:25] Yeah,

John Dehlin [00:27:27] yeah. And I mean, I just. I just. I'm gonna. Putting politics aside, I don't like Mike Lee. I'm embarrassed that he represents the state I live in. Just his Twitter presence. His takes are, in my view, some of the worst of either party. And I can mention people on the left, too, but for. I'm just gonna. I'm not gonna hide it. I really detest Mike Lee as a politician.

Meggan Hayes [00:27:58] Yeah. I think he takes to ad hominem. Making fun of people versus addressing issues a lot of the time. And I just don't like it when people do that, like, attacking people's looks or the way they. And instead of their arguments. That bothers me.

John Dehlin [00:28:18] Well, to kind of like, change it from, like, whether I like him or not to kind of the Mormon angle. I don't think Mike Lee represents the Mormon Church. Well, I liked Bob Bennett. I liked Orrin Hatch. I don't even necessarily feel like I liked or didn't like their policies, but I think everyone can agree that Orrin Hatch, Republican Senator Orrin Hatch, who I knew. I dated his daughter at byu. I met Orrin Hatch. I almost married into his family. Like, I got to know Orrin and Elaine Hatch and their daughter Alyssa. And regardless of what you think about his politics, I think we can all agree he was a classy Republican and statesman.

John Dehlin [00:29:06] He worked with Ted Kennedy. He was famous for working with Ted Kennedy, who was the most liberal of liberals on the other side of the aisle. Orrin Hatch and Ted Kennedy were famously good at working together to get things done for Washington. It's the type of bipartisanship, Meggan, that you called out in a positive way at the beginning of this episode.

John Dehlin [00:29:29] That's. I like statesman and Bob Bennett, Jim Bennett's dad. Ironically, Jim Bennett of Mormon, ex Mormon podcasting fame. His dad, Bob Bennett, was also a classy, conservative Republican senator who is a statesman. It's not Mike Lee's Republicanism that I detest. It's that he is not statesmanlike and he doesn't represent the ideals of Mormonism in My opinion and the ideals of Christianity. He comes across as petty. He comes across as desnat, and frankly, the worst.

John Dehlin [00:30:08] Let's just sort of impulses of partisanship. For me, Mike Lee exhibits. And that's why I don't like him. I think he's not a statesman.

Meggan Hayes [00:30:21] Yes. I think what I'm. What's going in my head when you're saying this is that there's a big difference between politicians who become politicians for love of people and love of country versus people who may become politicians because they love power and where that sends them in their priorities, how they show up in political discourse. Like, I'm just thinking that right now, and I think on either side, we could probably attempt to pinpoint people who come across that way to each of us.

John Dehlin [00:31:00] Yeah, I think money and power are big influences for everyone. And the best statesmen, CEOs, moms, podcasters, can balance their desire for power, their desire for money, their desire for whatever, with their desire for goodness, for values, for humanity. And by the way, Mike Lee's dad was president of BYU while I was there. And his dad was another example of a super classy, thoughtful professional who was Solicitor General for the United States, as I recall, and even argued cases before the United States Supreme Court. Like, I always felt like Mike Lee fell far from the tree that his father, you know, raised him under. So, anyway, enough about Mike Lee, but I hope. I don't think he represents Utah well, and I don't think he represents Mormonism well, but I do think he represents the worst impulses of MAGA well, and we'll see what happens to Mike Lee in two years.

Meggan Hayes [00:32:20] Yeah, I don't know how sustainable that is for people, like, how long they can listen to that type of rhetoric and still want to be on board. It does get exhausting.

John Dehlin [00:32:30] Well, I mean, if. If Lee's not careful, he'll get voted out like so many people did this time, you know, because I, I don't. I mean, I. I'll say, I guess. I guess this is important and relevant to Utah and Mormonism. Mike Lee has become a huge ally of Donald Trump. I have friends who are best friends with Mike Lee, and they've gone with him to Mar a Lago to hang out with Donald Trump. Like, Mike Lee has been a very important part of MAGA and a very important part of supporting Donald Trump. And if MAGA has been torpedoed, and if Trump and MAGA are on the decline, Mike Lee has certainly tied his ship, his destiny, to Trump and maga. And so this election has the potentiality of taking him down because he's tied himself so closely to Trump and MAGA in a way that even Curtis hasn't, it seems.

Meggan Hayes [00:33:34] Yeah, yes, he definitely has. He's embraced that. I've seen pictures of them together, and people are tired for many reasons, and so they're not looking that way. Like they're exhausted. They're exhausted from what's been going on.

John Dehlin [00:33:49] Yeah. Yeah. All right, well, that's enough about Mike Lee. Let's talk about Ben McAdams. Go ahead, Meggan.

Ben McAdams Returns to Congress

Meggan Hayes [00:33:58] All right. Ben McAdams returns to Congress, Utah's new first congressional district. The result, approximately 72% voted for McAdams, who's a Democrat, versus 25. Approximately 25% for Riley Owen, who's a Republican. He's the first Utah Democrat in Congress since 2021. How about you read some of this, John, while they.

John Dehlin [00:34:22] Yeah, so this is, this is relevant for me because I voted for Ben McAdams the first time. I'll just say this. I think Ben McAdams is one of us. I was warned about Ben McAdams before he ran for Congress the first time. I was like, john, there's this attorney who I think he was at Columbia, lived in New York. I was warned. I was like, Ben McAdams is coming to Utah and he's going to run for Congress. He's a Democrat, and you should watch out for him. So I, I, I've met him, I've talked to him, and, you know, he's at least a liberal Mormon.

John Dehlin [00:34:58] If he's not an ex Mormon, I don't know exactly his faith, and I don't know exactly his relationship with the church, but I 100% guarantee, at minimum, he's like a Patrick Mason, you know, liberal, progressive Mormon. And it's very possible he's pretty much an ex Mormon. I'm pretty sure he's listening to Mormon stories, and I've met him and I've talked to him, and he knows who I am and I know who he is, and I voted for him the first time.

John Dehlin [00:35:28] And so he served for two years, and then he, he lost reelection. And so I was sad to see that happen. And. Yeah, and then he has run again. So when you, when you mention he's the first Utah Democrat elected to Congress since 2021, I think that's true. And I think he was that Utah congressman elected in 2021. And I'm just going to admit I voted for him.

John Dehlin [00:36:01] A couple other things about him, I guess he got 72% of the vote in this, Utah's first congressional district also. Full disclaimer. I live in Utah's first congressional district, so Marky and I did vote for him this time as well.

John Dehlin [00:36:18] And you've got here a new map. And by the way, people that love to hear Meggan's voice, I'm only reading because the lawnmower is really loud in her background right now. But there's a new map. A 2025 court ruling led to a new congressional lines. The Salt Lake county center district strongly favored Democrats.

John Dehlin [00:36:39] So, yeah, so this has been a bigger story across the country. Republicans tried to gerrymander. You know, Democrats and Republicans have gerrymandered for centuries. That's basically to try and redraw congressional maps to make it so your party has the best shot at winning congressional seats.

John Dehlin [00:37:06] And you know, Texas did a massive amount of gerrymandering in the run up to 2026 election. Lots of states did lots of in terms of Republicans doing it. And then a lot of Democrats did it in like California and other states to try and counter it. Utah did its own gerrymandering and this amazing group of, I think it's women, progressive Mormon women, actually stood up to Utah politicians to keep Utah from getting gerrymandered. And we need to do a Mormon Stories episode on that.

John Dehlin [00:37:47] If you, Meggan, or some of our viewers or listeners will Google this really quickly. It's a really important story, a Mormon story that's also political that I have not yet covered that I want to. But Utah did its own version of gerrymandering. And let's just say that may or may not have affected Ben McAdams reelection, but it was also, as I understand it, potentially influential in this election.

John Dehlin [00:38:14] And regardless, not only did it prove not beneficial to Republicans nationwide. And again, this isn't partisan. This is just factual. I've been listening to bipartisan news. Most of the districts that were gerrymandered by Republicans to help Republicans get elected, elected Democrats anyway. So the gerrymandering for Republicans failed nationwide overall.

John Dehlin [00:38:45] And it did not keep Ben McAdams from getting elected in the first congressional district. So that's interesting. He went at 72% in the first congressional district. Why? He won a favorable district, an established political profile, and a campaign focused on affordability. Affordability, housing and cost of living. I'm going to also say his brand is moderate. His brand is inclusive. He was sort of a Talarico before Talarico.

John Dehlin [00:39:28] He wasn't, you know, super woke. He wasn't super leftist. He got elected as a Moderate. And as someone willing and wanting to work across the aisles, and I think that's just objectively true, I don't think I'm being partisan when I say that. And I'll say the same thing about Republicans when they exhibit that behavior. And then, finally, why it matters Republicans no longer hold all four Utah US House seats.

John Dehlin [00:39:59] This win alone cannot prove LDS voters shifted blue. Okay, that's. And I'm just going to say congratulations, Ben McAdams, just because I like moderate, bipartisan voices. And when I talk about statesmanship, I don't care. I'll say this about Republicans when they're statesmanlike, I want statesmen, not rabid partisans.

John Dehlin [00:40:26] And I think Ben McAdams represents that. Now, Meggan, I hope the noise is not as loud in your background now, because I would love to get you in on this if there's anything you want to say.

Meggan Hayes [00:40:37] Yes, they are done. Yay. My neighbor's lawn is small.

John Dehlin [00:40:40] Feel free to correct me, too.

Meggan Hayes [00:40:42] No, I. I am happy for Ben McAdams, because I think he does come across. Well, he does not just come across. Like, he just exudes that caring about everyone on both sides of the aisle. Like, I want to include LGBTQ people and women's rights and not make taxes ridiculous and think about affordable housing. And, like, he just really comes across as someone who is brilliant and who cares about people very deeply.

John Dehlin [00:41:20] And I don't know anything about Riley Owen, honestly. So, like, I couldn't have named who he ran against. So, like, whatever. I can't say nice things about Riley Owen, but I can't say negative things because I literally don't even know his name or anything about him.

Meggan Hayes [00:41:37] Yeah, same.

John Dehlin [00:41:39] Which probably isn't good. Like, I probably should have done my research. Maybe Riley Owen is more amazing than Ben McAdams. So I don't know what to say about that. I'm just owning the fact that I didn't do my homework.

Meggan Hayes [00:41:51] If

John Dehlin [00:41:51] anybody wants to email me and tell me how awesome Riley Owen is or how evil Riley Owen is, I do want to hear that. Do you know if Riley Owens Mormon can Google that? If our viewers or listeners want to Google Ryan Riley Owens Mormon status or former Mormon status, I would also love to hear that. Okay, you got a video clip?

Meggan Hayes [00:42:15] Yeah. This is Ben McAdams.

John Dehlin [00:42:17] Okay. All right, let's play it.

Utah Democrats' Strong Election Night

Guest 1 [00:42:19] This was an exciting night for Utah Democrats. Voters turned up and made their voices heard, and their voice was loud. I think it's a repudiation of Trump, for sure. It's also a repudiation of Utah GOP leadership. The lesson should be that they should start listening to the voters because the voters are willing to make a different choice. The votes are still coming in right now. My margin of victory is 47%. Democrats won the statewide vote yesterday in Utah. I think that's got to give Utah Republicans pause. Persistent efforts to overturn the will of the voters and to overturn Prop 4. If the breaking of the supermajority holds, they've lost the ability to amend the constitution to deny voters their voice.

Guest 1 [00:43:01] Voters want their elected officials to care about the challenges they're facing, the struggles that they're seeing. So I think what they want to see from Utah Democrats is that we listen, that we are going to put forward an agenda that when they elect Democrats, things can get better, and that's going to be my number one priority. But again, I think Congress does have a constitutional duty to be a check and balance on the other branches of government. The voters don't care what people say.

John Dehlin [00:43:31] Okay, Meggan, what are your thoughts on that?

Meggan Hayes [00:43:35] I think when it comes down to it, there are. There's probably not a large percentage of people in the US who really dive into politics and know all the candidates. And when they go to the polls, they know every single person who's running. Like, I think that's a small percentage of people. I think when people go to the polls, the majority of the time they're looking at, how much did my grocery bill cost this week?

Meggan Hayes [00:44:01] How much money did I spend on gas in my car? What do my property taxes look like? And if those things are really bothering me right now, really making it hard for me to live, who do I think is going to fix that?

Meggan Hayes [00:44:18] And so when we, you know, when Ben's talking about voters wanting to be listened to, those are the things that they. They want to say, I can't afford groceries right now, and I can't drive around because I can't put gas in my car, so I can't visit my kids.

Meggan Hayes [00:44:37] That's the part that they want listened to. There are a lot of other things that come and go as far as politics, but so many people just want to be in their home with their families and loved ones and feel like the thing at the top of their mind is not whether or not they're going to be able to pay their mortgage or pay their rent.

Meggan Hayes [00:44:58] And I think he understands that. At least it sounds like he understands that. And hopefully, going forward, because of what happened, because of this big upset, people on both sides of the political spectrum will be more willing to listen to, I can't pay my mortgage. What are we going to do? Like, as a country, we're suffering ring.

Meggan Hayes [00:45:19] And so hopefully, as elated as a lot of Democrats are right now, the takeaway for both parties will be let's really listen. Let's really care about the people who are in the trenches.

John Dehlin [00:45:33] Yeah, yeah. I'll just say I do think it. I do think this election came down to gas prices. Honestly, I don't think it was MAGA rhetoric. I don't think it was even the war. I don't think it was immigration. I think gas got too expensive. And for most people, that's enough. And if gas had been a dollar fifty a gallon, I think we might still have a red, you know, a red Congress.

John Dehlin [00:46:00] And, you know, all the, all the things that come with that. Like, I do think it came down to just affordability at the end of the day. And I. And, you know, I think that applies to Mormons in Utah. And so let me just say a couple things. Julia was kind enough to go look up Riley Owen really quickly. And interestingly, I'm a little bit embarrassed that I didn't learn more about him. Apparently, he went to Princeton University before serving a mission, an LDS mission to Denmark, and then apparently he led the Princeton rugby team, graduated with high honors, and then was awarded an Eisenhower Scholarship at Oxford University, and then served as an intelligence officer in the US Navy Reserve, where he continues to this day.

John Dehlin [00:46:55] So, I mean, that's some pretty freaking amazing credentials. So, like, I, I feel bad. I'm just going to own it right now and say I'm embarrassed that I didn't even spend the time to read about his background and make a more thoughtful vote. I literally just thought, I love Ben. I loved him before. Utah needs some diversity. I'm going for the Democrat, if for no other reason than just to have some balance in Utah. And I'm going to own that. That wasn't living up to my highest ideals. So, anyway, I want to learn more about Riley Owen. If any of you know Riley Owen or Riley Owen, you're a Mormon Stories podcast listener, I would love to have you on Mormon Stories to tell your Mormon story.

John Dehlin [00:47:36] Or if you know Riley Owen, please reach out to him and let him know I'm inviting him to come on the podcast really quickly. Something that Ben McAdams said that other people have told me that does not match my understanding of what happened. I heard Ben McAdams say that Utah went blue, and I've had other people tell me that overall Utah went blue. And that is not what I, that's not how I understand the data. And I'm up here on the New York Times website and what it says is Utah all voters.

Statewide Utah Election Results Overview

John Dehlin [00:48:10] And it says Republicans 53% and Democrats 44% all voters. So it's a 53 Republican to 44 Democrat margin. From what I've been able to gather from the New York Times. Now, did Utah shift blue, in other words, move more to the left and more blue? Yes. And so it says that there was a 14 point shift towards blue, which basically meant, if I'm reading it right, that Utah was 30% democrat blue and now it voted 44% democrat or blue. But that's very different than voting blue and being a majority. And I'm kind of throwing this at you off the cuff, but Meggan, do you, do you have any insight into this at all or not?

Meggan Hayes [00:49:05] Well, there are going to be some slides about this going forward from the different. Yeah. Things that but it diff. Utah definitely did not do what Texas did. Texas actually swung very blue in this election, which was I think a surprise to a lot of us in Texas.

John Dehlin [00:49:22] Yeah. Texas blue. Yes. One blue and every major statewide office was elected Democrat. But I, that's not my understanding about Utah at all. So I don't know why Ben McAdams would say that, honestly.

Meggan Hayes [00:49:36] Maybe he was just talking about his the first Congressional District.

John Dehlin [00:49:40] Okay, well, if you're. He

Meggan Hayes [00:49:42] wasn't. But

John Dehlin [00:49:43] if you or the listeners know have please share comments. We want this to be a robust political conversation. Please email us, please comment even on YouTube afterwards. I need someone who's smarter than me or who has access to the information to answer this question of if Utah went blue. What does that mean? I think it just moved, shifted towards blue but did not go blue. All right, should we go to the next slide?

Meggan Hayes [00:50:13] Yes, it's another video.

John Dehlin [00:50:14] Okay, let's play it. Or the video. Yeah.

▶ Video Clip 1

Video Clip 1 [00:50:16] KSL's Daniel Woodruff is live in the newsroom with updates on key races for the state legislature. Daniel?

Video Clip 1 [00:50:21] Well, this is something we have not seen in decades here in Utah. Right now, 15 sitting Republican lawmakers are behind their challengers by at least several hundred votes, and four other GOP held seats are in danger of flipping to Democrats or members of another party. It's important to note that many ballots are still being processed and some races could still change. But this appears to be the most seismic shift that we have seen at the Utah Legislature in many years. Some Republican incumbents have already conceded their losses. Others are waiting to see if additional results that come in over the next few days will swing in their favor. Now, this was obviously a big night last night for Democrats across the country, and that's what one political expert believes led to the results here in Utah.

Video Clip 1 [00:51:08] It's very easy to overinterpret what happens in a down ballot election. The biggest thing that drives a down ballot race is, is what's happening at the top. When you have a president with extremely low approval ratings who spent the last several weeks repeatedly saying to people, pretend I'm on the ballot, you might find that a lot of voters take him up on that in an unexpected way.

Video Clip 1 [00:51:36] Among the Republicans running behind is Senate Majority Leader Kirk Cullimore, seen here. He's trailing his Democratic opponent by more than 4,000 votes as of last check. Now, we talked to some of the Republicans who were losing their races who acknowledged that it was a difficult election for the gop. But one of them told us he feels that the legislature here in Utah lost the trust of the people.

John Dehlin [00:52:00] All right, what are your. What are your takes, Meggan?

Meggan Hayes [00:52:04] I think that might explain why some people are saying it went blue because it did shift blue and the Republicans are likely going to lose their super majority. And so it feels. Well, I mean, it not only feels more blue, I mean, there have been more Democrats elected than in many, many, many years. So it's not a total blue shift like Texas, but there is a shift toward more blue, and the super majority is likely going to be lost.

John Dehlin [00:52:39] Yeah, yeah, yeah. And. And I. And that was important for me to understand, just that when there isn't a legislative super majority, they can't just amend the Utah constitution without the consent of the people. And that's. That's important. So I love that. I think that's interesting because I think. Yeah, I think any. Any one party, and I would say that. I would say that about Democrats or Republicans, any one party getting too much power is probably not a good thing.

Meggan Hayes [00:53:17] Yes. Yeah, that's. I mean, that was the whole idea when the country was started, is that to have a balance of power, to have checks so people can't get out of control and make unilateral decisions.

John Dehlin [00:53:31] Yeah. Okay. Really quickly, there's a couple things I want to highlight. One is, I don't know if any of y' all know who I'm about to talk about, but there is. There's a group in Utah called Elevate Utah, and it's led at least in part, by these two women, Gabby Finlayson and Jackie Morgan. I don't. I'm pretty sure Gabby was raised Mormon and I'm pretty sure she's ex Mormon now. And I don't know anything about. About Jackie Morgan, but basically. Meggan, have you. Have you seen their videos on Instagram at all?

Meggan Hayes [00:54:18] I have not. This is interesting. Keep going.

John Dehlin [00:54:21] So they've got. They've got an Instagram channel, I think it's called what, the Hill?

Meggan Hayes [00:54:27] Yeah, that's what it said in the background in that picture. I love it.

John Dehlin [00:54:30] And it's basically about turning Utah blue. It's about supporting, as I understand it, it's about supporting Democrat Utah politicians, helping with political efforts to make the Democrat Party more of a viable party in Utah and to help Democrat politicians be more successful and to mute or reduce the power of the Republican Party and of Republican politicians in Utah. And so everyone who cares about Utah politics will want to subscribe to their Instagram channel. And every year when there's like a legislative session, they'll talk about the different bills that are coming before the House and the Senate. They'll talk about the politicians that are supporting them. Oh, this is a big deal. When I'm pretty. You remember when Kevin o' Leary basically accused activists in Utah of being brainwashed by the Chinese as they opposed the data center? Do you remember

Meggan Hayes [00:55:36] that? Yes.

John Dehlin [00:55:37] I'm pretty sure they were talking about the work of Gabby and Jackie, who were. Who were definitely leaders in challenging or questioning the expansion of the data centers in Utah. So, anyway, I have approached Gabby about coming on Mormon Stories to tell her Mormon story.

John Dehlin [00:55:59] They definitely are movers and shakers in Utah around Utah politics. And you can check out their website. It's ElevateUtah News. And I don't mean to give them a shameless plug other than to say you can't care about Mormonism without caring about Utah and Utah politics because they're all intermingled. And so I think this is fair game on Mormon Stories podcast to say if there's a big blue wave and if there are Mormons or ex Mormons who are heavily involved in the big blue wave in Utah, who are some of the movers and shakers that are behind it.

John Dehlin [00:56:40] And, and I just want to. I want to call people's attention, you know, to Gabby and Jackie and elevate Utah again just for people who care about this stuff. So, anyway, any thoughts or reactions to that?

Meggan Hayes [00:56:53] I love it. That's super interesting. I'll have to go follow them. I. There is a guy who lives in my neighborhood who goes to all of the local government meetings, all of the city council meetings. And afterwards he does like a five minute video of this is what was on the agenda, this is what they decided, this is what they voted. And I love it. I love it. I love people who will take what's going on, break it down so it's digestible because reading through bills, especially when they get on a state and a federal level, it's a lot. It's a lot and there's a lot to keep up with. So people who are willing to take that and distill it so that you can take it in bite sized chunks, I think it's super valuable.

Utah State Legislature Shifts Toward Democrats

John Dehlin [00:57:33] Cool. All right, well let's go to the next slide, Meggan, and tell us what, let me switch to it and tell us what's going on next.

Meggan Hayes [00:57:40] Yeah. So this was just outlining the Utah GOP super majority that's on track to fall. Latest reported update, projected House losses narrowed slightly, but Republicans still appear headed below the 50 seat super majority threshold. So previous there were 61 GOP seats.

Meggan Hayes [00:58:00] 50 seats are needed for a super majority and now there's approximately 46. The GOP held seats still projected to flip our 15. So the bottom line, still red, still Republican, but likely no longer a super majority. What changed since the first reports, projected GOP held seats flipping narrowed from 17 to 15 as more votes were counted. Two races moved back toward Republicans, House District 4 and House District 59. Even with those shifts, Republicans are still projected to fall below 50 seats. And this matters because Republicans will still control the Utah house, but without 50 seats, they could lose the power to override gubernatorial votes on their own.

Meggan Hayes [00:58:44] They also could lose the votes needed to advance state constitutional amendments without help. So it, I think what it does, and I think it's good is that it forces them to work across the aisle if they don't have a super majority.

John Dehlin [00:58:59] Yeah, yeah. Weirdly, the political, the two party political system wasn't, it's not in the Constitution, it's just kind of what emerged in US Politics. Obviously the UK and Israel and others have parliamentary systems, but we've got a, you know, China's got a one party system, Russia's got a one party system, we've got a two party system.

John Dehlin [00:59:21] But what's endemic in my feelings to a two party system is both parties are viable and that both parties, each party's a check on the other. And part of how America seems to function is all right, Republicans will get some power, but then you don't want them getting too much power. So Then there's a midterm switch to support Democrats to take some power away, and then Democrats get a lot of power and then they elect their president and then the midterms they swing back and Republicans get more power again. These states where only one party has all the power to influence is kind of un American to me because it just means that one party is unchecked.

John Dehlin [01:00:04] And I don't think it's ever good when one party, you become more like China. And Utah's been a lot more like a theocracy and a lot more like China than it has been about a robust two party system. And so I see this as a good thing.

Meggan Hayes [01:00:21] Yes, same. No, I think it's good because then they will hopefully be forced to listen to each other, to listen to the voters and be less on one side or the other and find middle ground.

John Dehlin [01:00:36] Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So, yeah, so that's a huge deal. Republicans have lost their super majority and a huge bunch of seats flipped Democrat. And so do we have any. You know, whether it's like marijuana legislation, cannabis legislation in Utah, whether it's priest penitent privilege, whether it's a statute of limitations for victims of child sexual abuse, whether it's gambling, whether it's other types of. Oh, oh. Once there was recent legislation about recordings and how it seemed like the Mormon Church wanted to make it illegal to secretly record somebody to make Utah a two party consent state for recording instead of a one party consent state. There are all sorts of ways that the Mormon Church wields influence with downtown Salt Lake and real estate and the Great Salt Lake.

John Dehlin [01:01:40] Like there's all sorts of ways the Mormon Church immigration heavily influences Utah politics. And something that we have yet to explore, and I don't even feel capable of exploring it right now, is if the Mormon Church loosens its power over Utah politics by Democrats gaining more power.

John Dehlin [01:02:05] How does that affect the church? How does that affect the church's desires, its strength, its powered influence over the state and its ability to manage the members and the culture and the state to the church's advantage. Because clearly it's benefited the Mormon Church to own a state. Like there aren't many world religions that own a US State.

John Dehlin [01:02:31] And up until now, the Mormon Church has owned Utah and a good chunk of Idaho and Arizona and Nevada. And at some point the church will lose control of Utah. And at that point it'll be interesting to see how that affects the church and its wealth and its money and its power. And I'm not even really equipped to discuss that. But that's the type of thing that a shift in the state legislature and in the voting demographic is going to ultimately impact the LDS Church. Do you have any thoughts on that, Meggan?

Meggan Hayes [01:03:07] Yeah, I think you're right. When I think about things like priest penitent privilege, I think that would be a huge one. A huge one, actually. So this morning Donnie and I were discussing temples and talking about our Lupa, you know, the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons act, and how that has affected how the church can go wherever it wants in the US and say, I know this land isn't zoned for a temple, but we're going to build here. And if you try to push back on us, our loopa. Our loopa, our lupa. And are there laws like that and the priest penitent privilege that now that the.

John Dehlin [01:03:47] Again,

Meggan Hayes [01:03:48] what's that

John Dehlin [01:03:49] remind us what our loop is again?

Meggan Hayes [01:03:50] Okay, so our loopa, it stands for the Religious Land Used and Institutionalized Persons Act. And basically what it says is that if there is land that a religion wants to use to build a structure, then,

John Dehlin [01:04:05] oh, they

Meggan Hayes [01:04:06] can't be stopped by like. Yeah,

John Dehlin [01:04:08] like.

Meggan Hayes [01:04:09] Yes, by like city code. If that city code is making it so they're not allowed to or able to practice their religion in the way that they want. So it gives religious structures kind of a pass a lot of times on. Well, the code says you can build to 50ft, but because we're religious, we can do a hundred feet and we can keep it lit all night. This is

John Dehlin [01:04:33] Rebecca. Rebecca and Landon and Nemo, Mormon Ish. Fighting the Mormon temple steeples, architecture.

Meggan Hayes [01:04:41] Yes. Yes. Yeah, well,

John Dehlin [01:04:43] I knew that. I just, I spaced it. I apologize.

Meggan Hayes [01:04:45] Yeah, I mean, it's a law that the Mormon Church pushed for when they built their test, their temple, I believe in Boston. Is that right? And it didn't have a steeple because it wasn't allowed because of the code of the land. And then they pushed for this law and then they got their steeple and now they're pushing that all over. Well, if they don't have the same political hold, could that law be changed? Could there be limits put on that? Could they now have to actually abide by city code and not just decry religious persecution every time? Same with the relief. You know, the priest penitent privilege laws in different states because they're different in each state in Utah, in Arizona, could those laws now be brought back to the table and be changed because the LDS Church doesn't have the political power it did in many cases? I hope so,

John Dehlin [01:05:39] yeah. Yeah. Well, it's. If anything, it's going to provide a lot of fun, interesting news over the, over the next few years and decades. So anyway, that's fun. Okay. Well, should we go on to Mitt Romney?

Mitt Romney, Republicans, and the MAGA Divide

Meggan Hayes [01:05:51] Yeah.

John Dehlin [01:05:52] All right. What's up with Mitt? Our boy Mitt.

Meggan Hayes [01:05:54] Yeah. So if someone is not familiar, He's a former US senator from Utah, former governor of Massachusetts, and a 2012 Republican presidential nominee. He said after the midterms, bad policy, bad character, make bad politics erratic. Tariffs, impulsive Iran, war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ice brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies, hoping for a course correction for the country and for my party.

John Dehlin [01:06:27] Holy bejeebers. Mitt Romney speaking truth. Like, as a Republican, as the former nominee, like, other than Trump, the most recent nominee to the Republican Party for president, calling out bad character, tariffs, the Iran war, pardons, corruption, the weaponization of the Justice Department, the ice brutality, deficits, the Epstein files. I mean, I'm in total, like, if this, if there were a Republican running on this platform, I would vote for that Republican. I wouldn't care. Like, this is my platform. This is what I care about. Abandoning allies. That's Russia and Ukraine. That's coddling enemies, hoping for a course correction. Wow. What, what, what do you think about Romney's statement? And then I'll share my own.

Meggan Hayes [01:07:27] I think he has been for quite a few years now so bold about pushing against what's going on in his own party because he doesn't think it's right. Because like I said previously, the best part of Mormonism is the integrity.

Meggan Hayes [01:07:45] And when people really hold on to that, Mitt is holding on to that. He's like, I was raised believing in Jesus and kindness and the repo. He's saying, my party doesn't seem to be doing that. And because I think I need to do what's right, even if people don't like it, I'm gonna say that this stuff is not what I thought my party was about.

Meggan Hayes [01:08:11] I love that he's coming out and saying that. And I mean, he didn't, he didn't mince any words. He didn't add a single extra word in there that he, he didn't. That isn't just coming down on his own party. He's like, let's reassess. Let's bring back decorum into our country. Let's bring back some classiness. Let's. Let's fight hard for things that, that make us more wholesome, more loving.

Meggan Hayes [01:08:40] Stop all of this fighting and name calling and war and let's, let's be able to be proud of ourselves as a party in a country again.

John Dehlin [01:08:53] Love it. I, as a form, as a current registered Republican and as someone who was very ideologically Republican for many decades, my dad, I don't, I didn't mention this. My dad served in the Nixon administration as a GS16 level bureaucrat. So, you know, my dad knew Nixon and Ford and so, and that was the, you know, that was, my upbringing is like Watergate and Nixon and Ford and then Reagan. That was all just very formative for me. And so I, people don't know or believe this, but I very much still identify with core conservatism, as I, as I'm sure you do at your core. Meggan but one thing that was really disheartening for me about MAGA as for my Republican brain, was how so many Republicans basically said this whole, this whole notion that developed in MAGA of a Rhino, of a Republican in name only.

John Dehlin [01:09:55] Basically, what I think was not good for the Republican Party was this idea that if you disagree with Trump or with his version or vision for Republicanism or for maga, that you weren't a Republican. And Mitt Romney went from being the Republican nominee for president to not even a Republican in the eyes of Republicans just because he didn't like Trump, stood up to Trump, disagreed with Trump and he never abandoned the party. He could have switched his party affiliation and become a Democrat. He didn't. He stayed loyal to the party, but the party abandoned him and the party didn't go, oh yeah. There's two different perspectives.

John Dehlin [01:10:42] There's a valid Mitt Romney wing of the Republican Party and then there's a MAGA wing. And let's say you're both Republicans. No. So many, including my own family members, so many of my family members were like, oh, he's not a Republican. Romney's not a Republican.

John Dehlin [01:10:58] He's, he's Rhino. He's illegitimate. He's a traitor. And I'm like, really? So disagreeing on policy. It means that you, you're not a member of the party anymore. And I, I do think that the Republican Party is now facing the consequences of not ha. Being a bigger tent and of basically folding completely into what some would view as a cult of personality.

John Dehlin [01:11:30] Because what is a Republican now if they're not a Trump MAGA? And I think J.D. vance and Mark Rubio are going to have to figure that out because I don't know what it means to be a Republican. Right now, if it's not maga, I don't even know. And I'm saying that as a registered Republican. Okay, so I get. Do I get a little bit of allowance to ask this question since I'm literally a registered Republican? Meggan, I'm sure you're going to use the word pontificating, but I'm processing. I'm processing. Meggan.

Meggan Hayes [01:12:06] Process is a good word because politics didn't only get divided between Republicans and Democrats. With such a deep divide in the middle, the parties divided within themselves. It became this very siloed and in and out group, us versus them. And not just the two parties fighting against each other, but in fighting. And I've seen a lot of people say, like, when the people who are at the bottom, you know, all of us who are just normal people going about our daily lives, when we're fighting with each other, then the people at the top benefit because then we're not paying attention.

Meggan Hayes [01:12:47] And I think we've now been forced to pay attention because like you said, we can't pay for our gas anymore. And I think now is a really good time for us to wake up and say, getting all of this divide is not helping. It's not allowing us to have the conversations that need to be had to really talk about where our country is going and what we need to do to.

Meggan Hayes [01:13:12] To save it. I mean, for lack of a better term, to save our country, to get to a spot where people can feel good about their lives and feel like they can provide for their families. So saying Mitt Romney is not a Republican, it shows exactly how, how, like how much infighting there's been and how polarized we've gotten. And it's not good. It's not good. Right. Because systems that can't take criticism are not systems that grow.

John Dehlin [01:13:51] Yeah, that's very Mormon. Right?

Meggan Hayes [01:13:54] So Mormon

John Dehlin [01:13:55] and. But also systems that are monolithic of monoculture is not good. You want diverse voices. You don't want just a patriarchy. You want women's voices are important counterbalances to men's voices. And people of color are good counterbalances to white people. And, you know, queer people are good counterbalances to straight people.

John Dehlin [01:14:21] And, you know, you know, diversity there is a beauty and an American nature. There's an American value, a founding pillar or principle, that of strength through diversity, that we're a melting pot, that we. And some people don't like that term. I don't know if there's a better term. Somebody, I think someone told me once, melting pots, racist. Like I don't know. I just think there is. There is positive strength in diversity.

John Dehlin [01:14:58] And, and that's true in churches, it's true in countries, it's true in families, it's true in political parties. And I can tell you right now, in the Democrat Party, the question is like, wait, are we socialist or are we moderate? And woke 1.0 is dead in the democrat party. Even AOC has stated woke 1.0 is dead.

John Dehlin [01:15:25] Like, there are excesses in the Democrat Party historically. And so what are we? Are we a moderate Talarico party, or are we a more hardcore Abdul Al said political party, you know, the new, you know, elected senator from Michigan, or are we something in the middle? And the Democrat Party is having to figure out what its identity is going to be now that it controls Congress.

John Dehlin [01:15:57] And the Republicans are going to have to figure out if there even is another wing of the Republican Party at this point or if literally Donald Trump and MAGA and the Republicans just cut off a second wing. Because there was, believe it or I know. You know this, Meggan. Once upon a time there was a Whig Party.

Meggan Hayes [01:16:17] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:16:17] There wasn't a Republican Party. And the Whig Party imploded and the Republican Party emerged. Parties can die. And the Republican Party is facing an existential threat. And it's either going to develop two wings again or it's going to die.

Meggan Hayes [01:16:34] Yes. Yes. Because you need all of the parts to survive. You have to have the balance of ideas.

John Dehlin [01:16:47] Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, I, I hope the Republican Party can develop a second wing again. I hope it looks a lot like Mitt Romney's Republicanism or Chris Christie's Republicanism. A moderate, common sense, fiscally responsible, even libertarian, low taxes, low intervention, low corruption, you know, business friendly, but also not inhumane to marginalized groups. You know, I could definitely see a world where I could vote Republican again. Based on its old values. Anti war, strong defense, but anti war. I could see a world where I would vote Republican again. But it'll be curious to see how the Republican Party reinvents itself. So, anyway, enough of that. Let's go to the next slide. Meggan, take it away.

Meggan Hayes [01:17:45] Yeah. All right. Well, one more thing I was going to say is I just, I think that's why people are so hopeful right now, is because they can see a world where they could vote either way. And I think that's hopeful because then people feel like they have choice. And I think especially leaving Mormonism, that's really what a lot of us want to feel like, is that we get to make a choice. Yeah. We can, yeah, we can go to the next slide. So this one.

John Dehlin [01:18:13] Well said. Well said. Thank you, Meggan.

Utah's Blue Wave Compared to National Trends

Meggan Hayes [01:18:15] Yeah, so I made some of these slides before this morning when you, when this was part of our other presentation. This was one of them. So Utah shifts Democrat plus 14. The Democratic shift in party margins since 2024. Republicans still lead statewide 52% to 44%. And this is from the New York Times. So it's the same thing that you were kind of talking about before. So there has been a shift and it's, you know, it's like a little mini blue wave. Let's. Let's hope some of the blue ends up in the Great Salt Lake. Right. And, and we have more water in there. And

John Dehlin [01:18:51] interestingly, one of Romney's sons is. Is helping to lead the effort of saving the Great Salt Lake. But yeah, a big, it was a huge blue wave that hit Utah. I think I saw somewhere that it has. Utah had the biggest blue shift of any state in the country. But that just kind of shows how red it was.

Meggan Hayes [01:19:13] Right.

John Dehlin [01:19:14] But it's still not blue as a state overall. Yeah. Right.

Meggan Hayes [01:19:19] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:19:20] Okay. All right, next slide.

Meggan Hayes [01:19:23] So this one is where you and I were talking about how does that compare with the LDS Church? So things have gone of 14 plus shift to Democrat and Utah's generational shifts. This chart shows LDS retention by age and gender.

Meggan Hayes [01:19:44] So is there a tie? And I'm not saying there is or isn't, but is there a tie between people leaving the LDS Church and the shift to Democrat? Like we talked about, how a lot of people leave and they immediately go Democrat? We don't want to say that. Everybody does that, but the two charts seem to be kind of going in the same direction.

Meggan Hayes [01:20:09] So on the chart it has. And it's. It's way more for females. Right. So we see a lot more females leaving the LDS Church. See these. These kind of graphs are harder for me to read. So Utah voting shift since 2024. Ages 18 to 29 have shifted 29 points. Democrat. Ages 30 to 44 have shifted 24 points. Democrat and ages 65 plus have only shifted 4.

Meggan Hayes [01:20:40] But if you look at the chart on the left that also kind of shows people who are not retaining their membership or affiliation with the LDS Church. So the older folks are tending to stay Republican. The younger folks who are maybe nuanced, maybe pimo, maybe leaving the LDS Church saying they're not affiliated are swaying more Democrat.

Meggan Hayes [01:21:04] So it's just asking the question, do these generational patterns overlap? Do people think, I mean, because when I was a kid growing up in the church, I didn't. I thought voting Republican was part of being Mormon. I really didn't know there was a choice. Like, honestly, I didn't really think there was a choice. Like, if I was going to be a good Mormon, I was also going to be a good Republican.

Meggan Hayes [01:21:26] And so this also could just be people realizing that they can be a good member of the church and make a choice when they vote, depending on who they line up with, whether it's Republican or Democrat. But there does seem to be a tie in the generational shifts of younger folks are leaving the church and there's more Democratic vote in Utah.

Meggan Hayes [01:21:51] Whether they're correlated, you know, correlation versus causation that we can't really prove, but we can look at the graphs and see they're kind of moving similarly.

John Dehlin [01:22:01] Yeah. And if I tell, I'm going to do my best to summarize and tell me if I'm. If we're on the same page. This, this chart right here helps to explain the demographics that we've been covering on Mormon stories for a while, which is that women are leaving the Mormon Church at a higher rate than men now, and that the younger you are, the more likely you are to leave the Mormon Church.

John Dehlin [01:22:31] And, and so, you know, and it makes sense. If you're. If you're in this toxic patriarchy, men are going to stick around more than women. And if you're in this toxic MAGA patriarchy, that's kind of a mono party culture, then politically liberal people are going to leave, which means that younger people are going to leave because younger people are more feminist and they're more politically liberal and they're less maga. And so you're just going to basically, it's basically this political dynamic of women being liberal politically and younger people being liberal politically are definitely factors in this epidemic of membership hemorrhaging that the Mormon Church is experiencing over the past 10 to 20 years.

Meggan Hayes [01:23:28] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:23:30] Yeah. Oh, is that, Is that. Are we on the same page?

Meggan Hayes [01:23:34] Yep. Absolutely. Yeah. I just. Whenever those graphs, I don't like the ones where the line goes that direction like that. I prefer like a. A bar graph.

John Dehlin [01:23:45] Yeah. Well, cool. Well, this is great. Tell us about the next slide.

Did Provo and LDS-Heavy Areas Turn Blue?

Meggan Hayes [01:23:50] So there were people online who were claiming that Provo turned blue. So I thought I'd look into it a little bit. Right?

John Dehlin [01:23:57] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:23:59] Because they saw this map and they were like, wait, that's right around Provo. What's going on? So I just figured I would flesh it out a little bit. So how to read this map. Red is Republican, blue is Democrat, purple is forward party, and green is Independent. So you'll see a little bit of green in there. Solid, solid colors. Racely, like races are likely already decided. So this map is probably even updated now because it's changing. It's live, lighter shades. Party currently leading races too close to call. District 62, Light Blue, is not a confirmed win. So down just south of where it says Provo, there's a light blue portion that's district 62. And that's why when someone looked at it, they were like, whoa, did Provo turn blue? But if you go to the next slide, it will break it down a little bit. So,

John Dehlin [01:24:48] okay.

Meggan Hayes [01:24:48] Oh, there you go. Yeah. Did Provo turn blue? So District 62, Chappelle, who's a Democrat, leads Thurston, who is a Republican, roughly 56% to 44% in updated unofficial returns. Thurston won 65.5 to a 34.5 in 2024 in District 63. So these are all districts that Provo is part of because Provo itself is not one district. It's split up. And that's why someone saw that, thought Provo turned blue. But Provo, within the city itself, is not its own district. So these are the districts that make up part of that. So District 63, Republican Stephen White leads with roughly 64% in unofficial returns, and it's not a citywide Provo result.

Meggan Hayes [01:25:34] Right. And then District 59, the large district east of Provo does not include the city. Republican Luke Searle leads about 51% to 49%. The race is not called. So in 2024, according to Precinct level election data, Harris outpolled Trump in four of Provost 38 precincts. So Democratic pockets existed before this election.

Meggan Hayes [01:25:56] And then when it comes to BYU, there's no verified 2026 precinct level analysis that establishes that BYU area voters drove Chappelle's lead. So in District 62, there is a Democrat leading, but that doesn't mean Provo turned blue is what I'm trying to get to, but it is, it can get confusing.

John Dehlin [01:26:17] Okay. And I don't know how much this will mean to you, but I'm looking up. So it's, it's District 62 that is, is turning blue or turn blue. And I'm just googled where that is specifically,

Meggan Hayes [01:26:33] and

John Dehlin [01:26:34] it's saying it's Southern Provo and Springville. And that's weird because Springville is the, is the home place of who of Chad Daybell. Right. And there's other true crime Mormonism that comes out of Springville. I'm trying to remember where, but.

Meggan Hayes [01:26:55] Well, is that where Ruby Frankie lived? Was that in Springville?

John Dehlin [01:26:58] Yes,

Meggan Hayes [01:26:58] maybe.

John Dehlin [01:26:59] Yes.

Meggan Hayes [01:26:59] Okay.

John Dehlin [01:27:00] Yeah. Ruby Frankie is Springville. And freaking

Meggan Hayes [01:27:05] Chad Dabel.

John Dehlin [01:27:06] Chad Dabel and Laurie and Tammy Dabel were from Springville. But what I think the simple explanation is that there's a lot of closet liberal BYU employees and professors and their family that have settled in South Provost Springville area. And. And even if they're hiding their liberalness or keeping it secret or they go work for Utah Valley University, I'm sure it's kind of that liberal educated, professorial elite and their family and children that make up a lot of District 62.

Meggan Hayes [01:27:52] Well, and did you notice in that video that we watched earlier from ksl, the guy speaking in there is a BYU professor?

John Dehlin [01:27:59] Yeah. No, I didn't notice that.

Meggan Hayes [01:28:00] Yeah, so it actually said the little bar at the bottom, like, professor of Political Science at byu. And he was saying, yeah, our party might have lost. You know, the Republicans might have lost their way, or. So there are folks at BYU who are maybe more moderate or are not MAGA, for sure. And that's that area. Yeah. District 62.

John Dehlin [01:28:24] That's interesting. Yeah. And there's a Facebook group, Thoughtful something. It's basically Jacob Hansen, Mormons.

Meggan Hayes [01:28:34] Oh, Thoughtful Faith.

John Dehlin [01:28:36] No, it's different. The Facebook group has a different name to it. But that conversation that you highlighted of basically MAGA Mormons fretting over Provo turning blue. Thoughtful Saints is the name of the Facebook group. So there's a Facebook group called Thoughtful Saints. It has 5.4 thousand members, and it's basically all the kind of fans of Jacob Hansen and Ward Radio and Jasmine Rapely. It's kind of that group that really pays attention to modern progressive Mormon apologetics on social media.

Meggan Hayes [01:29:22] They've

John Dehlin [01:29:22] got a Facebook group, and in that Facebook group, they were totally. And also Greg Mattson and the Quick people. That's one Facebook group where they were fretting over Provo turning blue. You know what I mean? It was just like Jesus coming any minute because Provost turned it blue. Like, even the very elect will be deceived because Provost turning blue, like Satan's really got his grasp on the world because Provost turning blue. You know, that was. That was what was coming out of the Thoughtful Saints.

Meggan Hayes [01:29:57] It is just so interesting to me when politics becomes about which party would Jesus choose? And I have seen, like, Rise Zion and some of those other accounts that are like, the Apocalypse tomorrow come out with some stuff since the election. And I can. I could see how that would be something very frightening to them.

John Dehlin [01:30:22] Yeah. Well, it's fun anyway. This is super fun. I love this stuff. Like the, the marriage of religion and politics

Meggan Hayes [01:30:29] is

John Dehlin [01:30:29] just like. I mean, it's like I grew up, never talk about politics, religion, or sex at the dinner table. And you can't talk about Mormon. Mormon problems without talking about sex. So basically that's all I do is talk about religion, politics and sex. That's pretty much all I talk about. So, like, this is just way too much fun.

Meggan Hayes [01:30:50] No, I like talking about it. So people don't want to get into these conversations, but I just love. It's fascinating to me to listen, to say something and then listen to what someone else says and be like, huh, maybe I could adopt part of that. That's interesting. I'm going to have to think about it. You know, I just, I love to continue challenging my mind. I think part of that too comes from being in Mormonism so long where I didn't feel challenged.

Meggan Hayes [01:31:12] Right. It was like we go to church every week and hear the same thing over and over and over again. Like, I like a little bit of mental challenge. Sometimes in the moment I'm like, oh, I don't want to be part of this conversation. I'm so uncomfortable. But that's what pushes me to keep learning. So I've. I've come to embrace it, even if sometimes I'm like, oh, this conversation is really hard.

John Dehlin [01:31:34] Yeah. Yep. Well, that's why I look forward every Friday with you, Meggan. And I know a lot of people are enjoying what we do as well. Let's go to the next slide.

Church Involvement in Abortion Ballot Measures

Meggan Hayes [01:31:45] Okay, so this is the two abortion bills that we've been talking about. One in Idaho and one in Nevada. So the church sent out letters to members in both Idaho and Nevada saying basically, vote no. I mean, I don't want to read the letters again, but they were saying the church opposes abortion. And then they went so far as to donate a million dollars to the vote no on Prop 1 campaign in Idaho. And this is the outcome of both of those. So in Idaho, 55.94% voted no. And the abortion rights proposal was rejected. The church intervention, the sacrament meeting letter plus 1 million campaign contribution, I'm sure had something to do with that. And then in Nevada, the church sent out the same letter. However, 63.17% voted yes. The abortion protections were approved

John Dehlin [01:32:40] and the Mormon Church gave what, a million bucks for the. To defeat The Idaho Proposition 1. Is that right?

Meggan Hayes [01:32:48] Yes. Yes.

John Dehlin [01:32:49] And we don't know if it gave money to defeat the Nevada.

Meggan Hayes [01:32:54] Yeah, I couldn't. I couldn't find anything about that. There was also abortion on the ballot in Missouri, and I thought they sent out a letter there as well, but I couldn't remember and I couldn't. In the, you know, 10 minutes I had this morning, I couldn't find it. But the Missouri one, I believe passed. Yes. No, no, no. It failed. Sorry, I put that at the bottom. The Missouri Amendment 3 also failed.

John Dehlin [01:33:15] Meaning what?

Meggan Hayes [01:33:17] It was a similar. So in Missouri, they had a similar abortion.

John Dehlin [01:33:21] So

Meggan Hayes [01:33:21] Missouri's

John Dehlin [01:33:21] got the same abortion problems as Idaho. Now,

Meggan Hayes [01:33:25] I haven't looked into it a lot, but there's something similar going on. And I think the church also sent out a letter there.

John Dehlin [01:33:30] I mean, I'm just gonna say people may not like this, and I would love to have someone come on Mormon Stories to debate this or talk this. For me, the good guys in the abortion topic are the moderates. I don't know anyone in the world that wants unrestricted, rampant, lots of abortions. Abortions like candy. Let's just have abortions everywhere because yay, abortions. I don't know anyone in the world like that.

John Dehlin [01:33:59] And hopefully there's no one in the world that says there should never, ever be abortion ever. Like, what I like is a moderate middle road. And I basically look to doctors to tell me what that. In the medical profession to tell me what that. I don't look to church leaders to tell me what medical procedures should or shouldn't happen or what health care should or shouldn't be available to women who are trying to navigate these decisions. So I look to the medical profession. And so for me, there's a clear good guy, bad guy here. The good guy is anyone who's on the side of the overwhelming consensus among the medical profession of.

John Dehlin [01:34:40] Of to what extent abortion should be accessible to women. And so in my mind, Idahoans lost. The good guys lost in Idaho because the Mormon Church used its influence and money to take away and to decrease the value and the quality of health care provided to women in the state of Idaho.

John Dehlin [01:35:07] The good guys lost. Good health care lost. The church used its money and power and influence in an evil way with Idaho. And it prevailed in Idaho because of that influence and money.

Meggan Hayes [01:35:22] But

John Dehlin [01:35:22] in Nevada, the church's poorly used money and power and influence failed in Nevada. And the good guys won in Nevada and the medical profession and women and good medical care for women prevailed in Nevada. That's how I see it.

Meggan Hayes [01:35:44] Yes. Yeah. Same. And Julia said in the comments. So I guess in Missouri it was the. The bill was going to put more restrictions if I was understanding what she was saying. And so. And it didn't pass, so it was. It was a good thing.

John Dehlin [01:35:58] Oh, okay. Yeah. Julia lives in Missouri.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:00] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:36:01] So Missouri went the way of Nevada. Good medical care for women prevailed in Missouri as it did in Nevada. Is that what. Okay.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:10] I think that's what she said. Yeah.

John Dehlin [01:36:11] These initiatives are so crazy because you can read it, and I think they're intentionally written to be confusing.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:18] Right. Sometimes you

John Dehlin [01:36:19] read these initiatives and you don't actually know what they're doing, you know?

Meggan Hayes [01:36:24] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:36:25] Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:26] Yes. I've had to read through so many. I worked when I lived in Alaska. I worked in city government and reading through ordinances, and it's like one word at a time. They can get really dense. Also,

John Dehlin [01:36:41] I love it that Colby's in the chat. Colby says I had to vote from an LDS church building while they were actively opposing measures on the ballot.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:51] Wow. That

John Dehlin [01:36:52] makes sense. Wow. Thanks for sharing that, Colby. And that is kind of mind blowing.

Meggan Hayes [01:36:57] Yeah, that. So the polling locations are in LDS buildings,

John Dehlin [01:37:00] apparently. I didn't even know the church allowed its buildings to be used,

Meggan Hayes [01:37:05] dude. I've never voted in a church before. That's weird.

John Dehlin [01:37:09] Yeah. Like, that's. Anyway, that's wild. We need to

Meggan Hayes [01:37:13] have

John Dehlin [01:37:14] more news and opinion discussions. I'm glad we're doing what we're doing, Meggan. And we need more.

Meggan Hayes [01:37:21] Right.

John Dehlin [01:37:22] I'm inviting my friend James Huntsman to come on Mormon Stories to just debate today's episode because there are conservatives and Republicans even, who are ex Mormons who really disagree with what we're talking about today. And

Meggan Hayes [01:37:38] I

John Dehlin [01:37:38] want to create space for that. If you are a Republican or a conservative or a libertarian ex Mormon, and you hate or disagree with what Meggan and I are saying today, I'll do an episode with you and Meggan. Maybe you'll join us. And I would love to hear other points of view because I don't think I know the truth and I don't think I have the truth.

Meggan Hayes [01:38:01] And I'm

John Dehlin [01:38:01] not even trying to influence people. I'm not even literally trying to influence my audience on what to believe politically or how to vote. I'm just trying to make sense of the world.

Meggan Hayes [01:38:11] Right, Right. So there's a gal here in Texas who owns a bakery, and she is very liberal. And, you know, she'll have, like, cupcakes that say fuck ice. And she'll. And her parents are maga, and she does a podcast with them every week where she sits down. I think it's her and her brother and her parents, and they just talk about this kind of stuff, and they still love each other and they still have family dinners. And there she'll say occasionally there are times when she's like, I had to take a break this week from my parents after our discussion, but then they come right back to it.

Meggan Hayes [01:38:47] And I just love how she's modeling civil discourse with people who she disagrees with on so many points. And after doing this for a couple of years now, I don't know how much either of them have swayed towards the other at all. I just think it's a really cool way to model discourse about tough subjects.

John Dehlin [01:39:07] Yeah. Yeah, I love it. Anyway, for the happiest things, you know how, like, LDS discussions has been, like, one of the most important things Mormon Stories has ever done. And I kind of look at my series with John Turner,

Meggan Hayes [01:39:19] with

John Dehlin [01:39:20] Joseph Smith and Brigham Young as one of the most important things Mormon Stories has ever done. I think of this new stuff as one of the most important things Mormon Stories has ever done. So

Meggan Hayes [01:39:31] anyway, yeah,

John Dehlin [01:39:33] I

Meggan Hayes [01:39:33] think it's important. Yeah, I think it's important for people to be informed and to understand that they have a choice. And if they want to look into things, they can make a choice. Like, research can be the answer. We don't all have to stop researching, you know, in Mormonism, research is not the answer in life. Just get out there, learn the issues, form an opinion.

John Dehlin [01:39:59] And I don't think it's helpful for us to just never talk politics. It's just sticking our head in the sand and avoiding something interesting, but something important. All right, what does Alex Bass have to tell us? Meggan?

Analyzing the LDS Vote Shift in 2026

Meggan Hayes [01:40:11] He always has so much to say. I want to meet this guy. I've never even.

John Dehlin [01:40:15] We've had him on. I think we had him once on Mormon Stories. I, I, I, I wish we had a regular. I think once he came on, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure once he came on anyway.

Meggan Hayes [01:40:25] Okay, I'll have to go look. Okay. So

John Dehlin [01:40:27] not like his long form. Like, he came on to talk about one of his earliest, you know, findings.

Meggan Hayes [01:40:33] Yeah. To do some analysis. I'll have to go back and look. So he, of course, dove into the election results and how it intersects with Mormonism, and he says, so the big question for this newsletter is, did Latter Day Saints also shift blue? To really get our answer, we will want to wait until the 2026 Cooperative Election Study in April is released where we can zoom into Latter Day Saints specifically with a large sample and as a time trend. But for now we can look at a number of hints and signals from high density lds states slash countries.

John Dehlin [01:41:06] All right,

Meggan Hayes [01:41:06] he. Yeah, he published a ton of graphs. So what does the top line say? National blue wave, Utah, two House districts. Trump won by double digit shifts. By double digits shift toward Democrats in the midterms. So the map on the left shows the partisan margin shift by house district in 2026 compared with the 2024 presidential margin. And you can see how blue it is. Like,

John Dehlin [01:41:32] yeah, basically hundreds of House districts shifted Democrat voting and like two, three or four House districts shifted Republican in its voting

Meggan Hayes [01:41:50] by

John Dehlin [01:41:50] a significant margin. So it's just a huge, just monstrous blue wave is, is what this is showing,

Meggan Hayes [01:41:59] right? It definitely, it looks like a wave. It even has movement. Right?

John Dehlin [01:42:03] Yeah, yeah,

Meggan Hayes [01:42:04] yeah. So then it goes on to say, according to the New York Times analysis from Times voter trends, voters overall shifted 15 points toward the Democrats. Comparing this election to the last, Utah followed suit with nearly the same shift toward the Democrats of 14 points. And I think we've gone over

John Dehlin [01:42:23] this. Basically went comparable to the nation. The nation shifted about 14 or 15 points to the left towards Democrats and Utah wasn't ahead of or behind that trend. Utah kind of followed the trend.

Meggan Hayes [01:42:41] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:42:41] That's interesting. That's interesting.

Meggan Hayes [01:42:43] Yeah, yeah, it really is. I think it's nice that things aren't so polarized. Right. Like each state isn't just trying to fight against everyone else. Like it's almost as if everyone came together and says, can we do something a little different? I, and I didn't need it to be Democrat. I just like that people seem to kind of be agreeing that change is necessary.

John Dehlin [01:43:10] Yeah, yeah. I like what Mitt Rodney said. We, we need less corruption, better discourse, less war, you know, more affordability.

Meggan Hayes [01:43:22] Yeah,

John Dehlin [01:43:23] just. Who's gonna argue with that? Right,

Meggan Hayes [01:43:26] Right. I mean there are a few people that

John Dehlin [01:43:28] we need more corruption. We need more. We need higher prices on gas. Like, you know,

Meggan Hayes [01:43:33] yeah, $5 a gallon.

John Dehlin [01:43:35] We need to be more cruel to illegal immigrants, you know.

Meggan Hayes [01:43:39] No,

John Dehlin [01:43:40] like, yeah, it really is just sanity returning. And I don't mean Democrats is sanity.

Meggan Hayes [01:43:47] Right.

John Dehlin [01:43:47] I mean, I think magism just got too extreme and this is a shift away from the excesses of harmful maga. Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:44:03] Yes. Yeah. It's not us necessarily agreeing that Democrat is the way. It's us all agreeing that we want some change.

John Dehlin [01:44:10] Yeah, yeah, yeah, agreed. All right, next slide.

Meggan Hayes [01:44:14] Oh,

John Dehlin [01:44:15] sorry.

Meggan Hayes [01:44:17] You go ahead and read this one while my son comes in and my dogs lose their shit.

John Dehlin [01:44:20] Okay. All right, so I haven't seen this slide yet, but I'll read it. Utah. Sorry? Utah's four House seats all looked bluer than 2024. So in all four Utah districts, it looks like basically all four Utah districts shifted significantly towards the Democrats. This can't be right. Because if you add up those percentage points, 24%, 20%, 16% and 19%, They all. I, I don't understand this chart because if you average all those, it's way more than the number we just saw, which was, you know, a 14% shift. And I don't think there was an overall 20% or 20 point shift towards the Democrats. So anyway, if I can make sense of this, it's basically, you know, trying to show that there was Democrat shifts in all four of the districts that were significant and meaningful. And maybe it's the fact that all the votes. I don't know. Meggan, can you help me make sense of this?

Meggan Hayes [01:45:46] Yeah. So this. Yeah, this one came directly from Mormon metrics. So let's see. Every Utah seat looks bluer than 2024. So it's the four houses seats, right?

John Dehlin [01:45:57] Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:45:58] And every single one of them is bluer than in 2024. Utah seat looks bluer.

John Dehlin [01:46:03] I mean, that makes sense. That wouldn't surprise me. They're all going to be bluer. None of them are going to be more red. Okay, keep going.

Meggan Hayes [01:46:09] Yeah. So he says Democrats won the recently redrawn district as expected. So that was District one that we talked about. But what was not expected was severe underperformance by the three Republican candidates in each of these seats saw a 16 point plus swing versus the expectation Utah may be moving blue faster than expected. Let's not get too hasty though. There are still many votes to be counted. And he said he'll update the numbers. Okay.

John Dehlin [01:46:38] And now

Meggan Hayes [01:46:39] making more sense.

John Dehlin [01:46:40] Yeah, and now my memory is a little bit better. I think that I think the Republicans wanted to gerrymander and redistrict Utah. And I think this group. Did anyone ever look up Mormons for Ethical Government or something like that? Did you ever Google that?

Meggan Hayes [01:46:56] I did, yeah.

John Dehlin [01:46:59] I think that that group fought Republican politicians in Utah. And I think Republican politicians in Utah ultimately weren't allowed to gerrymander away District 1 so that Ben McAdams couldn't get reelected. I think they tried to make it so that Ben McAdams wouldn't be re electable in District 1. And I think they weren't able to gerrymander as they wanted to?

Meggan Hayes [01:47:29] Anyway,

John Dehlin [01:47:30] the point is, is that all four districts swung heavily towards the Democrats.

Meggan Hayes [01:47:36] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:47:37] Okay. But we're not there yet.

Meggan Hayes [01:47:41] No.

John Dehlin [01:47:42] Yeah. Okay. Any, any other thing about that slide?

Meggan Hayes [01:47:47] No,

John Dehlin [01:47:47] I apologize. I, I. Let's invite some people who are Utah politics wonks to help explain all this to us, because we clearly don't know what we're doing.

Meggan Hayes [01:47:59] I was just relying on Alex and his interpretations. Like it says on air takeaway, like, he literally gave points. Utah District 2, 3, and 4 all showed big democratic movement relative to the 2024 baseline in. Even while remaining red at this stage. So they're still red, but they're just less red.

John Dehlin [01:48:18] Well, district one's blue.

Meggan Hayes [01:48:20] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:48:21] The other three districts are red.

Meggan Hayes [01:48:23] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:48:23] Shifting towards the Democrats. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's the type of thing where, again, if the Republican Party doesn't figure out how to redefine itself, then that shift could continue in Utah. But if Republicans figure out how to redefine itself away from where MAGA has gone, Utah has a chance to stay largely red.

Meggan Hayes [01:48:51] Yes. Yes. I mean, they have all of the underpinnings of staying red. They just need to make it a viable option.

John Dehlin [01:48:58] Yeah. They need to make. Bring sanity back to the party. All right. Maybe freaking welcome Mitt Romney back. They can start by just welcoming Mitt Romney back to the party.

Meggan Hayes [01:49:08] Right. Like, oh, maybe you were a little. Right.

John Dehlin [01:49:13] Yeah. Like, is, Is the, the, the Senator Curtis. Is Curtis going to be denounced as, as rhino now? Or, you know, can he stay in the party now that he thinks there needs to be less corruption? You know,

Meggan Hayes [01:49:27] I know. Are they going to be quieter? Because they're feeling a little outnumbered right now. You know, it'll be interesting to see if that term, if people still are shouting Rhino from the rooftops or if they're like, oh, maybe that wasn't our best idea.

John Dehlin [01:49:41] Yeah. Utah Republicans, Utah Mormon Republicans and Republicans owe Mitt Romney a huge apology, the way he's been treated, because Mitt Romney has been vindicated like he is. Like Winston Churchill. He is, you know, a voice in the wilderness.

John Dehlin [01:50:04] This is why I named my son Winston, by the way. Churchill saw Hitler and the rise of Nazism before almost anybody else, and he got laughed at and mocked for sounding the alarm about Hitler and fascism. And then he was vindicated, and then he became prime minister, and then he helped England win World War II. And Mitt Romney was Churchillian in him. Seeing where Donald Trump and MAGA were going to lead the Republican Party. And I think he deserves an apology from Republicans and from Mormon Republicans and from Utah Mormon Republicans.

John Dehlin [01:50:51] And Julia, make this a freaking short and share this on the Internet and tag fucking Mike Lee and Curtis and Romney, because I'm saying it here, Mormons, Republican Mormons, Utah Mormon Republicans. You owe Mitt Romney an apology for backing Trump, backing Maga, and calling Mitt Romney a Rhino and ostracizing and alienating Mitt Romney. He was a truth teller. He was Churchillian. He was someone Republicans can and should be proud of.

Meggan Hayes [01:51:31] Yep.

John Dehlin [01:51:32] Yeah, make that a short.

Meggan Hayes [01:51:34] Absolutely. She says. Got it in the comments.

John Dehlin [01:51:37] All right, next slide.

Meggan Hayes [01:51:39] Okay, so Alex says, as I talked about in my recent Pew Research center interview, Latter Day Saints are geographically concentrated in the western states. And you can see that from this map with the highest rates of LDS being in Utah and southern Idaho congressional districts and expanding out from there. So he's just showing where the biggest concentration of LDS members are. So you see, Utah is super dark brown. There's parts of Nevada that have some Arizona, a little bit of Wyoming, Idaho and parts of Washington, but obviously Utah is the center of that. So let's see. He says LDS top 20, all Western estimated LDS Sheriff population. This is from 2020 data. States shown hold the top 20, like concentrations of Mormons. And I'm trying to see if that's congressional districts, but. Yeah, go ahead, John.

John Dehlin [01:52:37] It seems like it is. Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:52:38] Yeah,

John Dehlin [01:52:39] it is. And I'm just going to say this is sort of a funny chart because, like, obviously the dark, the dark brown is most of Utah. Right. Especially southern Utah and Utah County.

Meggan Hayes [01:52:54] You see Salt Lake in there. It's like.

John Dehlin [01:52:57] Yeah, but

Meggan Hayes [01:52:58] it's like a tiny little lighter spot.

John Dehlin [01:53:01] Right, right. I'm just saying you can't even. Salt Lake, it's got a high percentage,

Meggan Hayes [01:53:06] but

John Dehlin [01:53:06] it's so teeny because it's so geographically small.

Meggan Hayes [01:53:10] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:53:10] What it's saying is the lower two thirds to four fifths of Utah is super maga, super Republican, super conservative, and I'd say super orthodox Mormon. And then that's tier one. That's Tier one Mormon Maga, right?

Meggan Hayes [01:53:28] Yes.

John Dehlin [01:53:29] And then tier two Mormon MAGA is northern Utah, which is kind of Ogden and Cache Valley and northern Utah, plus southern southeastern Idaho. And when I think about southeastern Idaho, other than Rexburg and BYU Idaho, the only other thing I think of is freaking Lori Valo and Chad Daybell and like prepare people and all the preppers. Like, that's all that true crime. Like that's coming out of southeast Idaho.

Meggan Hayes [01:54:00] Yeah, it Is. Yeah, it is. I know. It's an interesting breeding ground for true crime.

John Dehlin [01:54:07] And then like northern Idaho, southeast Washington, Wyoming, Arizona and Nevada are all, you know, lightly Mormon maga. And it's weird because there were parts of Orange county in California that used to be heavily Mormon and Republican influenced, but California's received. Experienced such a massive hemorrhaging of Mormons that California doesn't even register as having a critical mass of Mormons in. In. In any district. But it used to, Meggan. It used to.

Meggan Hayes [01:54:45] Is that why Mormons love Disneyland so much?

John Dehlin [01:54:48] Partly. But that's why, you know, Orange County, a lot of those Mormon temples, you know, and a lot of Mormon church leadership comes out of kind of that. That Orange County Mormon area that's kind of the Inland Empire and San Diego and, and Orange County. So anyway, that's really interesting. And do

Meggan Hayes [01:55:16] they all live in Highland and Alpine now? That's what I've heard.

John Dehlin [01:55:20] And. And, you know, and Utah county and then southern Utah, St. George. Oh, yeah. All those Californians freaking moved to Highland and Alpine. Absolutely.

Meggan Hayes [01:55:30] That was the talking point for, like, years.

John Dehlin [01:55:34] Yes. Yeah, it's like that's. Yeah. Highland and Alpine has become California West. Yeah. Yeah. Anything, anything else about this slide that's fascinating?

Meggan Hayes [01:55:48] No, I love looking at these maps and trying to decipher. Oh, yeah, it does have California over there, doesn't it? Was just really light.

John Dehlin [01:55:56] I mean, what else is interesting is that the church is losing its grip on Idaho. It's losing its grip on Oregon and Washington. It's lost its grip on California, and it's losing its grip in Nevada and Arizona because it was able to prevail in Idaho. It was not able to prevail in Nevada and Arizona. And I say good, like F the church in Prop 8 and F the church intervening in access to medical care for women in other states, you

Meggan Hayes [01:56:31] know? Yes, absolutely. Like you said, leave it to the professionals. Let a woman go into her doctor and have a conversation and see a specialist and decide the best course of action.

John Dehlin [01:56:43] Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:56:44] Like Dallin Oaks does not need to be between a woman and her doctor

John Dehlin [01:56:48] and stop chasing OB GYNs out of states like Idaho.

Meggan Hayes [01:56:54] I know.

John Dehlin [01:56:55] Why would we want that? Why would we? With all the babies the Mormon Church wants women to have, why would it want a third of the OB GYNs to abandon that same state?

Meggan Hayes [01:57:06] Yeah. Yeah. I've seen a lot of complaints coming out of Rexburg of women who are having babies there and not getting the care just for a normal pregnancy, let alone a high risk pregnancy. Like just not getting the A base level standard of care that they would expect in a pregnancy.

John Dehlin [01:57:21] Yeah. All right, next slide.

How the Most LDS Districts Performed in 2024 vs 2026

Meggan Hayes [01:57:25] All right, so how did the top 20 LDS districts perform in 2024 versus 2026? Republicans Republicans trail Trump in all 20 most LDS districts. Sorry, my dog is whining but I'll keep

John Dehlin [01:57:37] going.

Meggan Hayes [01:57:39] I just tell people. So they don't think it's their own computers or, or sound. Yeah. So in 2024 the Trump Harris margin. Oh, 2024 is the Trump Harris margin. In 2026 is unofficial house two party margin. So this is the different congressional districts in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and all of them look, if you look over to the right under swing of Democrat, they all have A plus there.

John Dehlin [01:58:09] Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [01:58:10] Wow.

John Dehlin [01:58:11] Well, pretty much all the, all the districts in the entire nation swing Democrat except for like those four little red arrows that we saw. So of course they're all going to swing blue because almost everyone did. So the swing D is just because there was a big blue tsunami and of course the double digit ones and especially the ones in the 20s and the 30 point swings. That's big when you're seeing predominantly Mormon districts swinging Democrat by like 25 or 35 percentage points. Like what are some of those? So there's Nevada swing super blue. It looks like Arizona, that one Arizona district, Arizona three swing 34 points blue.

Meggan Hayes [01:58:59] Wow.

John Dehlin [01:59:00] So Arizona's 25 percentage points in another Arizona four. And then Wyoming swing 21 points blue. So basically, yeah, Mormon MAGA is losing massive ground in Wyoming, Arizona and Nevada. It's losing some ground in Idaho and it's losing considerable ground in Utah. And then there are certain districts that literally shifted from Republican majority to Democrat majority. And that would be Arizona one was a Mormon MAGA district and now it's a Democrat district. And Then also Nevada 2 was a Mormon MAGA Republican district and now it's a Democrat district. And then Nevada 3 was a Mormon MAGA district and now it's a Democrat district, significantly so. And then Arizona 6 was a Mormon MAGA district and now it's a Democrat district. Who is that clown MAGA guy that we covered in that previous case with the child sex abuse cover up that ran for Congress in Arizona? Meggan.

Meggan Hayes [02:00:21] Oh, the sheriff. The guy who ran for sheriff.

John Dehlin [02:00:24] We need to recover that guy again because he had to have won and we need to

Meggan Hayes [02:00:29] figure out

John Dehlin [02:00:30] what district he won in. I just wish I had a perfect command of our history, Meggan, because we freaking did a whole episode on this clown and now we can't even remember his Name, but we need to figure out what district he ran in.

Meggan Hayes [02:00:45] Mark Lamb.

John Dehlin [02:00:46] Mark Lamb. And what district did he win in? Which Arizona district did Mark Lamb win in? Somebody should Google this.

Meggan Hayes [02:00:56] Let's see

John Dehlin [02:00:57] what Arizona

Meggan Hayes [02:00:59] wins. Arizona House seat

John Dehlin [02:01:01] In which district?

Meggan Hayes [02:01:04] 5th district.

John Dehlin [02:01:05] Okay, so going back to our chart. Arizona 5th district. Look at that. So 17

Meggan Hayes [02:01:14] points.

John Dehlin [02:01:14] 17. Almost 18 points towards the Democrats. And it won by 2.4 percentage points. So Lamb won, but it looks like he barely won. And I'm embarrassed that that clown represents. Is a congressman and represents Mormonism as a Mormon congressman. And I predict. I'm predicting it right now. What's his name again? Mark Lamb.

Meggan Hayes [02:01:43] Yes, Mark Lamb.

John Dehlin [02:01:44] Mark Lamb is going to be an embarrassment for the Mormon Church unless he changes, you know, who he is and how he comports himself. I predict he's going to be a Tim Ballard or a Bundy. Bundy or a. Or a Mike Lee level embarrassment to the Mormon Church, you know?

Meggan Hayes [02:02:07] Yes.

John Dehlin [02:02:08] Forward.

Meggan Hayes [02:02:08] Yeah. I mean, look at his track record. It's not so different than, like, the stuff that Tim Ballard was getting mixed up in.

John Dehlin [02:02:16] Yeah. Kind of. Kind of prepper maga, you know, Mormonism at its worst. Anything else you want to say about this slide?

Meggan Hayes [02:02:26] No, I just. I could look at these all day. They're so interesting to me.

John Dehlin [02:02:29] I would love any Mormons or listeners from that Arizona district to

Meggan Hayes [02:02:35] 5.02.

John Dehlin [02:02:37] I think it's 2. Right.

Meggan Hayes [02:02:38] The one that swung or the one with Mark Lamb? The

John Dehlin [02:02:41] one with Mark Lamb.

Meggan Hayes [02:02:42] It's five. It actually says Lamb. Okay. I

John Dehlin [02:02:45] would love any. Sorry. Thank you. Yes. Any listeners from Arizona 5 that want to tell us about Lamb and that election and how it went and how things are now that he. He's won. I would. I would love to hear more from them.

Meggan Hayes [02:03:04] Yeah, same.

John Dehlin [02:03:05] Because I. I'm going to predict we haven't heard the last of Lamb.

Meggan Hayes [02:03:08] I don't think so. On

John Dehlin [02:03:10] Mormon News podcast.

Meggan Hayes [02:03:12] Right. He loves to be in the public eye, so

John Dehlin [02:03:15] I just think he's. He's scary in the worst of, you know.

Meggan Hayes [02:03:19] Oh, yeah.

John Dehlin [02:03:20] What's going on? All right, next slide.

Meggan Hayes [02:03:22] Okay. House counties in Utah and Idaho tell the same story. House Republicans trail Trump's pace everywhere. There are votes still out. So that's the table on the left. Trump share 2024 is in gray versus House Republican share in 2026. Partial. In Utah's 20 most LDS counties. So they're ranked by LDS share. So it's like the most LDS counties are at the top and then the least are down towards the bottom. But it's the top 20. And then it has the same thing for Idaho on the other side. So Idaho's most LDS counties, House Republican runs behind the Trump 2024 votes.

John Dehlin [02:04:01] Now, tell me if I'm reading this, this chart wrong, Meggan, but it seems like the colors are, are confused and flipping because what I would expect to see would be blue dots on the left and red dots in the right because Trump 20. Trump 2024 would represent old Republicanism and then shifts to the left, which was the 2026 move, would be blue. And so we would have blue dots on the left, red dots on the right. And that would show for each district how much it moved left during the election. Am I reading that wrong or.

Meggan Hayes [02:04:42] I think what he's doing is comparing Republicans to Republicans.

John Dehlin [02:04:46] Yeah, but I'm just saying, if you're going to show the shift, the 2026 shift to the left, why would you make that red?

Meggan Hayes [02:04:54] Right. Well, so let's see. I know some of these are like I

John Dehlin [02:04:59] have, unless

Meggan Hayes [02:05:00] I have to read. Yeah. Through him so many times to be like, okay, this is what he's saying. So,

John Dehlin [02:05:04] yeah, I know. Last minute. So,

Meggan Hayes [02:05:07] yeah. House votes counted so far as a percent of 2024 presidential votes. Okay. So in 2024, that's the gray dot. And what percent voted the same and that's the red dot.

John Dehlin [02:05:24] Huh.

Meggan Hayes [02:05:25] So 86% of the people in the most Mormon county in Utah voted the same as they did in 2024. I think that's what we're seeing.

John Dehlin [02:05:36] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [02:05:37] Does that make sense to you? Yeah, some of these are harder to, to read.

John Dehlin [02:05:44] Well, I, the, what I could take away from this is that pretty much every district. I'm guessing what we're going to find is that pretty much every district or county in Utah and Idaho. Okay. The right one's Idaho and the left one's Utah.

Meggan Hayes [02:05:59] Yes.

John Dehlin [02:05:59] I'm guessing all counties in Utah and Idaho shifted at least somewhat Democrat.

Meggan Hayes [02:06:06] Yeah. Yeah. So he's just comparing like, the people, like what the votes were in 2024 versus those same people, how they voted in 2026. I think that's what it's showing. So the story is all the same. House Republicans are underperforming in 2026 and voters are more left. But like, if you look at Utah county. Utah.

John Dehlin [02:06:28] Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [02:06:29] 36%. Oh, that's 36% of the votes in. So 83% voted.

John Dehlin [02:06:34] That's right.

Meggan Hayes [02:06:35] Yeah. 83% voted the same as they did in 2024. So then that leaves what, 17% went more Democrat. I'm gonna have to look at this one a lot of times.

John Dehlin [02:06:45] Okay, well, we can process that a little bit later.

Meggan Hayes [02:06:49] Yep.

John Dehlin [02:06:49] We'll chalk that up to me asking you to do this last minute.

Meggan Hayes [02:06:53] Yeah, Right. I know. Because usually I have time

John Dehlin [02:06:56] or to. To his releasing of this data the morning.

Meggan Hayes [02:07:01] Right. Because it was this morning. Like, even I wouldn't have had time unless we decided to do this tomorrow.

John Dehlin [02:07:07] Yeah. Everyone please do, like and subscribe to this channel. And please donate to Mormon news.com by the way, we have had a good increase in people donating to MormonNews.com to help support and fund our paying Meggan what she's worth. I've told Meggan I'm committed to her getting six figures.

John Dehlin [02:07:30] I think she deserves that. I think that everyone working in this space, I want Julian Brooklyn to get six figures. I want Nemo to get six figures. I think that's how important all of this is. But anyway, we want everyone who values this type of coverage, wants to see it continue or even grow to Please donate@mormonnews.com to the Campaign to fund this. And I'm just stalling because what I'm trying to do is find out. We have 75 people. Meggan, on the one hand, how awesome that is is that we now have 75 people who are donating monthly to support MormonNews.com and this weekly show called the Mormon News Podcast. That's the good news. What's the bad news, Meggan?

Meggan Hayes [02:08:26] Well, they don't want to know what I make hourly still.

John Dehlin [02:08:29] Which is What?

Meggan Hayes [02:08:30] It's like $5 an hour I make below minimum wage.

John Dehlin [02:08:34] Did y' all hear that? And that's not just me. That's with all your other work on Generally Unquotable. Right?

Meggan Hayes [02:08:40] Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:08:41] It's like you're overpaid there and underpaid here. You're paid here better than you're paid generally unquotable, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:08:47] Absolutely.

John Dehlin [02:08:47] Just for the record.

Meggan Hayes [02:08:49] Yeah. No, John is not underpaying me. If I just average out all the time I spend by what I'm bringing in, like what I've brought in this, this year, it probably is between four and five dollars an hour.

John Dehlin [02:09:00] Yeah. So on the one hand, yay. That now 75 of you are donating monthly to Mormon News Podcast and MormonNews.com and to Meggan and to this weekly show. And again, thanks to all the donors to Mormon Stories Podcast and to Generally Unquotable that support us generally. None of you have to change anything unless you want to, but shame on Those of you who don't, who have disposable income, if you're poor and don't have disposable income, no. Shame on you. If you enjoy this show weekly, if you enjoy Mormon News Podcast and you have disposable income and you don't donate to Mormon stories or generally unquotable and you haven't signed up, I'm going to say it. Shame on you. Is that okay?

Meggan Hayes [02:09:51] Yeah, because Trevan Ahn said that I'm a Sea Org worker. Then he said maybe I'm mixing up my cult.

John Dehlin [02:09:58] You're paid worse than a Sea Org worker. That's awful. So long story short is if you are not supporting us and you can Please go to MormonNews.com Become a monthly Dota 2 MormonNews.com to the Mormon News podcast and we're going to increase what we pay. Meggan,

Meggan Hayes [02:10:17] I would love that. All right.

John Dehlin [02:10:19] Okay, let's go to the next slide.

Meggan Hayes [02:10:22] All right, two interesting cases. So this is Adam Brown from X. He says counting is still in progress, but I cannot overstate how mind bogglingly crazy this is for Orem and Provo, Utah.

John Dehlin [02:10:36] Okay, and what's he basically saying? That. Oh, okay, okay. So Weber county, for example, voted more Democrat than Republican. Right? That's what we're seeing

Meggan Hayes [02:10:48] at

John Dehlin [02:10:48] the top, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:10:49] Yep.

John Dehlin [02:10:51] And

Meggan Hayes [02:10:52] then even just that, the margins are so close. Like that chart on the left is really small so it's hard to see. But those are the districts we were talking about earlier when people like, did Provo turn blue? Like maybe it's not all the way blue, but look how close it is.

John Dehlin [02:11:06] Okay. So yeah, it's basically. I wish I could see that. But it's basically saying that in Utah State House District 61, that basically Republicans and Democrats were neck and neck. And similarly in Utah State House District 62, Democrats outvoted Republicans.

Meggan Hayes [02:11:33] Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:11:33] And there were actually several seats that went blue. So I mean there are lots of Utah counties or districts that went blue. That's why we no longer have a super majority in the House. Right?

Meggan Hayes [02:11:48] Yes. Yeah. And the, the guy who posted that, Adam Brown is a BYU political scientist.

John Dehlin [02:11:54] Yeah. Yeah.

Meggan Hayes [02:11:55] So that's also interesting.

John Dehlin [02:11:58] Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So yay. Go, go parody and buy, you know, dual party systems in Utah. What's the next slide?

Mormons, MAGA, and National Religious Data

Meggan Hayes [02:12:08] So this one just sets up the next few slides that come out. He's. Alex is referencing the NORC survey. They released the public data file of US voters with over 85,000 interviews and estimated over 1600 LDS radio respondents. From the Civic Health and Elections Project. He says one call out with this data is that these are registered voters, so it's not the general population of the US or of Latter Day Saints. He makes a methodological note. NORC withheld the detailed religion variable in certain states, and then he lists those states. So this is just kind of showing some of his methodology

John Dehlin [02:12:48] for

Meggan Hayes [02:12:48] what we're going to see next.

John Dehlin [02:12:50] Okay, lay it on us.

Meggan Hayes [02:12:52] So the finding. LDs approve of Trump, but often softly. Mormons approved of Trump, but softly Trump job approval by present religion among registered voters weighted. So if you look down. Let's see, Mormon is the second one down. 14% strongly approved, 37% somewhat approved. 23% somewhat disapprove, and 26% strongly disapprove. And they only approve less on this chart than evangelical Protestants. So as blue as we've gotten, this is still showing that there is approval among Mormons for Trump, although it's, I think, quite a bit softer than it used to be.

John Dehlin [02:13:38] Well, I, you probably saw, I, I thought it would be funny if you actually shared the short that I made because I was playing with shorts.

Meggan Hayes [02:13:46] Oh, yeah.

John Dehlin [02:13:47] Yesterday. And I shared a little meme based on a. A news report that I showed that Mormons were the most Republican voting religion in the United States. But I don't think that was adjusting for whiteness.

Meggan Hayes [02:14:10] Right. Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:14:12] And so people were trying to call me out and say that I didn't get it right, that there were white evangelicals that voted more Republican or more for Trump than Mormons. But I don't think that's apples to oranges if you don't adjust for race. Mormons led the nation in voting Republican and. Or for maga.

Meggan Hayes [02:14:39] Yes.

John Dehlin [02:14:40] And what, what this chart shows, I'm already seeing it, is it breaks out black Protestants, and I'm guessing that evangelical Protestant line might have white in it. Maybe. And I. You don't even know.

Meggan Hayes [02:14:56] I don't, but it looks like it. Because there is a sec. A separate category for black Protestants.

John Dehlin [02:15:02] Yeah, but what's it. But what's it saying is it's saying that Mormons approve of Trump at the second highest rate. Is that what it's saying?

Meggan Hayes [02:15:17] Yeah. Yes. And I think if we looked at this same chart a couple of years ago, the darker green portion would have been much bigger. So there are people who have swayed a little bit, but they haven't totally disavowed Trump. They've just gotten a little softer about their approval. But they're still, I mean, what's 37 plus 14. That's still a pretty big percentage.

John Dehlin [02:15:44] Yeah. Yeah. So it's what I'm reading this to say, and I apologize, I wasn't able to process this beforehand either, is that atheists and secular people hate Trump the most, hate Republicans the most. And then it's black Protestants, Jewish people, other and mainline Protestants. They're. They're the most anti MAGA. Catholics are kind of split 50, 50 Republican MAGA. And then. And then white evangelical Protestants are the most maga and Mormons come in next. Is that right?

Meggan Hayes [02:16:25] Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:16:27] Okay. Yeah. So basically the Mormon Church does have a MAGA Trump problem on its hands.

Meggan Hayes [02:16:33] Yes. Still.

John Dehlin [02:16:36] Yeah. It's the most or the second most MAGA religion in the United States, depending on how you count.

Meggan Hayes [02:16:44] Yes. Yeah. Whether you divide out for race or not.

John Dehlin [02:16:47] And that's going to keep. It's going to be interesting just to bring this back to Mormons for a second. A lot of people have left the Mormon Church in Utah, Idaho, Arizona over the past five, 10 years because when they go to a Mormon ward, they hear MAGA rhetoric that makes them not feel like at home at church. And that's made homophobic things, anti immigrant things, violent things, and that's made them feel like. Or just anti liberal things or, you know, anti LGBT things. Right.

Meggan Hayes [02:17:22] And

John Dehlin [02:17:22] that's made a lot of Mormons leave the Mormon Church in Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Nevada over the past five to 10 years. I'm guessing there's going to be a lot of MAGA sentiment shared in Mormon wards and branches as an expression of frustration and anger at the results of these midterm elections. And I imagine that could exacerbate the disaffection of moderate or liberal Mormons in Idaho, Utah, Arizona and Nevada. What do you think, Meggan?

Meggan Hayes [02:18:05] Right. Someone getting up and bearing their testimony that they know the Republican Party is true and

John Dehlin [02:18:12] Jesus is coming soon, that Satan has its hold on America, that the millennium is coming because clearly evil is now reigning supreme even in Utah, even amongst God's chosen people. Right?

Meggan Hayes [02:18:30] Yes. Yeah. I mean, those testimonies are going to happen.

John Dehlin [02:18:33] Yeah, they're totally going to happen. So the church is going to be facing a reckoning. There

Meggan Hayes [02:18:40] something else about that chart that I think we need to remember, John, which might make the difference between what you were talking about on your short is that this only came from registered voters.

John Dehlin [02:18:51] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [02:18:52] So there could be people in other surveys who weighed in that were not registered to vote.

John Dehlin [02:18:56] Sure. Yeah. That's important. Yeah. All right, what does the next slide tell us?

Meggan Hayes [02:19:04] So it's Similar, but it's also among registered voters. It says Mormons fall between evangelical and mainline party identification by present religion. Among registered voters, the finding is that Mormons still lean Republican. So they're 54%. They're down right under evangelical Protestants who were 71% Republican. And Alex says a majority of Latter Day Saints still lean Republican, though this is certainly a larger share of Democrats than you typically see in the LDS break.

John Dehlin [02:19:38] Yeah. So second, basically, next to white evangelical Protestants, Mormons are the most MAGA Republican religion in the United States, full stop.

Meggan Hayes [02:19:50] Yep.

John Dehlin [02:19:52] That's. That's interesting because I just, I. My concerns with. With Tox, I'll just, I won't say all maga and I won't say, you know, all Republicans. I'll just say my concern with toxic MAGA at its core has always been how anti Mormon it is because it was never Mormon to be harsh. It was never Mormon to be mean. It was never Mormon to me to be unkind. Right. To me, being Mormon was to be nice and to be kind and to be loving and charitable. And that's not what MAGA has become.

Meggan Hayes [02:20:31] Yeah,

John Dehlin [02:20:31] well,

Meggan Hayes [02:20:32] because you even see, like, the top leaders of the church will come out and be very empathetic and people focused when it comes to immigration. And the most hardline MAGA Mormons will get so upset about it. And the church leaders are looking at them sort of saying, we are a worldwide church, so when these people come into our country, we need to accept them and let them in our doors. And then, yes, the, the most hard line MAGA Mormons are like, what are these immigrants doing in our church building? So you've. I've even seen that tug from the top leaders of the church to some of the most extreme members.

John Dehlin [02:21:13] Yeah. Let's play. Let's show. Let's show some chats really quick.

Meggan Hayes [02:21:19] Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:21:19] Thanks to Maya Korab. I can't even. I don't have my glasses. 8262 for becoming a member. A YouTube member that helps pay for what we do. Joshua Merrill. 8629 says, John, check out Brian Schott. Did you look up who that is? Will you do by looking up Julia or Meggan who that is? Thank you for the super chat. Joshua Merrill.

John Dehlin [02:21:50] Julia writes, abortion remains legal in Missouri up to fetal viability after voters decisively defeated Amendment 3 on November 3, 2026. This is what we were talking about before. Thank you to Otter Starkness for the donation. Thank you. She liked it when I dropped the F bomb. She says, thanks for Saying F. Thanks for saying John and perfect context. Thanks to outer snarkness for being a super fan, a reliable fan.

John Dehlin [02:22:19] We've already read Colby's comment. We love it when Colby joins in. Obviously, Jeff Wright, 2395, writes, Shame works. Love you guys and gals. So he was basically referring to us saying, if you have disposable income and you haven't supported Mormon news podcast, shame on you. So he works and he donated. And then finally, we got my wish.

John Dehlin [02:22:47] We got a resident of Arizona District 5. It's XX Santa BXX hello from Arizona 5. Lamb stomping ground. Specifically. We got nothing from the Democratic candidate leading up to this election. I didn't even know their name until I looked at my ballot. Yeah. And that's just the way it is in districts that aren't competitive. People just don't even tune in

Meggan Hayes [02:23:24] to

John Dehlin [02:23:24] who both candidates are because it doesn't matter. Like, if the district's always going to go Republican, why would you even learn the name of the Democrat? And I think that that's one of the things that Republicans. Sorry. That's one of the things that Democrats are learning. This round, they're probably going to take the Mississippi Senate seat that they never thought was in play.

John Dehlin [02:23:48] There's an extra Senate seat in Mississippi that is likely going to go Democrat, unexpected or unanticipated by almost everyone. And it looks like there's a Senate seat in Florida that came very close to going Democrat, but it stayed Republican because Democrats invested no time, no money, and no good candidate in that district.

John Dehlin [02:24:16] And it just goes to show that in two years, there are likely going to be a lot more districts, Senate seats and House seats and state legislature seats at play now that Democrats are seeing that they have more of a chance than they ever thought.

Meggan Hayes [02:24:37] Because

John Dehlin [02:24:37] who would have thought Texas would turn blue?

Meggan Hayes [02:24:39] I know,

John Dehlin [02:24:40] right?

Meggan Hayes [02:24:41] Anything's possible at this point,

John Dehlin [02:24:44] right?

Meggan Hayes [02:24:45] Yeah. So I looked up Brian Scott.

John Dehlin [02:24:48] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [02:24:48] And it looks like he has a website called Utah Politics News, Utah Political Watch. So he did a live stream of election results, how the blue tsunami swept through Utah's legislative map. So he's a political commentator.

John Dehlin [02:25:02] Okay. So I'm gonna ask Julia, or you, Meggan, to write down that name. Follow up, let's have that guy on a special Mormon news episode and have him break down, if he's willing and able to have him break down Utah Political News as it relates to Mormons and the LDS Church. Right?

Meggan Hayes [02:25:22] Yeah, that'd be awesome.

John Dehlin [02:25:24] And I've also invited Gabby Finlayson from Elevate Utah to come on Mormon Stories and to tell her. And she's accepted. She's going to come on Mormon stories, tell her story, talk about, elevate Utah. And I invite the chairman of the Utah Republican Party or anyone, you know, anyone who represents Utah Republicans who wants to come on Mormon Stories and talk about Utah politics from a Republican Mormon standpoint. I'm in because I'm not trying to influence anything other than like the best outcome politically for Utahns.

Meggan Hayes [02:26:05] Let's just get.

John Dehlin [02:26:06] For ex Mormons,

Meggan Hayes [02:26:07] let's just get Mitt Romney on.

John Dehlin [02:26:11] I am friends with a member of Mitt Romney's family. I can say that. I can't say more than that, but I can say that.

Meggan Hayes [02:26:20] But

John Dehlin [02:26:20] my guess is Mitt Romney won't come on Mormon stories. But if you will, I'm down.

Meggan Hayes [02:26:28] Yep. Now, he came to Alaska and went to a bear preserve that was not far from where we lived. And a couple of members of our branch, we were in a branch at the time, took him out on their boats to go to the bear preserve and they were very tight lipped about it.

John Dehlin [02:26:44] Yeah. I'm also friends with James Huntsman, obviously, because I've had him on stories. John Huntsman Jr. Has been extremely quiet. What the freak happened to John Huntsman Jr. By the way, for so many years. Jon Huntsman Jr. And his wife listened to Mormon Stories podcast because they would DM me, even from Russia. When Jon Huntsman Jr. Was serving as ambassador to Russia, I would get DMs from Huntsman's about Mormon Stories podcast. Where in the freak have Jon Huntsman Jr. And my Huntsman homies gone? But James Huntsman is still a friend. I'm still in touch with him. I have every reason to believe that. I'm friends with my other Huntsman friends as well. I just haven't heard from them in a while. But I would love to hear from freaking John Huntsman Jr. About his thoughts on this election. Why has he been silent? Why is it only Mitt Romney that's speaking up?

Meggan Hayes [02:27:48] Yeah, I don't. Maybe Mitt's voice is just so big.

John Dehlin [02:27:54] I'm just gonna say I've heard a rumor about why Jon Huntsman Jr. Went quiet and I'm not going to share it publicly. But all I will say is I would love to hear from Huntsman's as well because freaking John Huntsman Jr. Ran for president. Right? Once upon a time.

Meggan Hayes [02:28:12] Oh yeah. No. My, my. If anybody got talked about in my house as a political figure when I was a kid, it was The Huntsman family.

John Dehlin [02:28:18] Yeah,

Meggan Hayes [02:28:18] in general. I knew who they were when I was a child because my mom was just the biggest fan of the Huntsman's.

John Dehlin [02:28:25] Yeah, well, where Frick is John Huntsman Jr. S voice in all this? I hope he speaks up. All right, next slide, Meggan.

Meggan Hayes [02:28:32] All right, 56% GOP or about 70%. So this is some conflicting information that Alex couldn't really sort out. So depending on which chart you look at. So maybe this is too. John, why you're short seems to go one way or the other, right? Because it depends on which chart you look at. What percentage of Mormons are still Republican versus Democrat. So on the left we have Mormons second only to Evangelicals for house. Evangelical Protestants are 75% and Mormons are 56%. But then the graph at the top right, the black with the purple, it has evangelical Protestants at 77% in LDS at 70%. Like 56% on one, 70% on another.

Meggan Hayes [02:29:20] That's a huge swing. And then the bottom one, see, Mormons are the third, it says 69% are Republican and 30% are Democrat. So, yeah, Alex just said 70 to 56 is a pretty big gap between the two surveys. And depending on which one is right, it tells a different story about the LDS politics.

John Dehlin [02:29:43] Well, I'm gonna. I'll give my opinion. I think that some of that gap might have something to do with white Mormons versus non white Mormons.

Meggan Hayes [02:29:55] And

John Dehlin [02:29:56] I think it might have something to do with ex Mormons vs faithful Orthodox Mormons and people who no longer identify or still identify as Mormon but maybe don't believe anymore. And I'm also going to say that it's my opinion that Utah isn't even more red than it is.

John Dehlin [02:30:19] My opinion is that is at least in part due to people leaving the Mormon Church, because I do think, on average, most people who leave the Mormon Church end up having their politics shift to the left and or becoming voters for the Democrat Party.

John Dehlin [02:30:42] And I believe that those two things have gone in hand. The extent to which Utah and Nevada and Idaho have turned more blue and the extent to which Utah isn't the most MAGA and the most Republican and the most conservative. In part it's people of color and in part I believe it's due to the massive wave of ex Mormons of people leaving the Mormon Church and having their politics become more liberal. And I also think it is in partly due to to how many Californians and gentiles moved into Utah and polluted its religious and its political monoculture impurity I think that's where some of this Utah blueness and you know, Utah redness and Utah MAGA ish versus shift towards blue. I think some of that discrepancy lies in some of those factors. Years.

Meggan Hayes [02:31:42] Yeah. Because in Utah, even though it's not as concentrated Mormon as it used to be, you still really cannot separate what's going on in Utah politics between what's going on in the LDS world. Like they're still so tied. So as more people leave the church, they get less conservative. It doesn't mean that they go all the way Democrat like you said, they become more moderate or they have different ideals as a Republican, but they're slipping away from the MAGA side of the Republicans and changing their views as they leave the church or as they stay in the church and just aren't believing in it the way that they used to.

John Dehlin [02:32:22] Yeah, yeah. Somebody made the joke, made the question why use the term gentile? It's literally we showed that clip of like Harah for Israel that Brad.

Meggan Hayes [02:32:33] Right.

John Dehlin [02:32:34] Like look at your patriarchal blessing Mormons, like for or forever Mormons. Ask any Mormon about their patriarchal blessing. Mormons believe they're the true tribe of Israel. And in that way, Mormons view anyone who isn't Mormon as a gentile. Just like historically Jews have viewed non Jews as gentiles, Mormons view themselves as the true children of Israel and as anyone who's not faithful Mormon as a gentile. That's why I use that term.

Meggan Hayes [02:33:06] It's very Mormon.

John Dehlin [02:33:08] Yeah. Really quickly, thanks to Jeff Wright for signing up to be a YouTube member. And thanks to Cynthia Le Geogu5442 for her super chat as well. Anyway, it's going to be interesting to see how Utah shifts politically and how the Mormon Church, an active, faithful Mormon church, shifts politically and whether that just increases. Like believe it or not, Meggan, clearly the LDS Church has had an increased percentage of disaffection from the membership in Utah and in the United States. But believe it or not, Meggan, it actually could get worse.

Meggan Hayes [02:33:55] Yeah, well, I mean, for them.

John Dehlin [02:33:59] Yeah, right. It could get worse for the church. Disaffection. White Utah Mormon disaffection could accelerate at a higher rate than it has been over the past five to 20 years. And this political aspect could become a part of it.

Meggan Hayes [02:34:21] Well, it's like the, the no broken windows concept, like where things get contagious. So if you're 20 years old and the majority of your friends are pushing towards, you know, they're, they're members but they're becoming more nuanced and they're becoming more liberal or they're just outright leaving the church. That influence is going to spread. You know, I think the church would look at those as broken windows, probably, but. And the more broken windows you have, the more broken windows you get. But it's actually just people realizing that they have a choice. And I think that's great.

John Dehlin [02:34:59] Yeah, I'm loving the comments. I wish we could literally just do comments all day and have a bunch of people join. Charles Palmer writes, texas turned blue only in big cities. False. That is false. There's a massive. And I don't mean to be confrontational, Charles. That's false. Based on my understanding. My understanding is Hispanics

Meggan Hayes [02:35:26] all

John Dehlin [02:35:26] along Southern Texas, all along the Mexico, Texas border, Hispanics experienced a wild shift away from Trump back to the Democratic Party in addition to what happened in the big cities. Now, Meggan, you lived there. Am I wrong?

Meggan Hayes [02:35:46] No, I don't think so. When I saw the, the graphs coming out afterwards, the Hispanic vote, the, the percentage that voted Democrat that voted Republican last time was huge. I was just trying to see if I could find those same charts. I think they came from the New York Times. It was a huge swing

John Dehlin [02:36:03] in

Meggan Hayes [02:36:03] the Hispanic vote.

John Dehlin [02:36:05] Black people, Hispanics and young people all across the board, across the entire country made heavy, heavy, heavy shifts towards the Democrats.

Meggan Hayes [02:36:16] Yep.

John Dehlin [02:36:17] And embarrassingly, the most MAGA voting demographic of all is middle aged white men. Middle aged white Christian men.

Meggan Hayes [02:36:29] Yes.

John Dehlin [02:36:30] Are the most MAGA voting demographic of all.

Meggan Hayes [02:36:34] Yeah, yeah. I have a couple.

John Dehlin [02:36:35] Shame.

Meggan Hayes [02:36:36] Yeah. And I have a couple neighbors who are mourning because of that right now.

John Dehlin [02:36:41] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like that, that should say something. Anyway, Charles Palmer, I'm going to keep reading mainly because there's almost 400 mosques in Texas. What? They vote Democrat because Democrats are more malleable than Republicans. When they get more political control, they see anyone who doesn't want Sharia law to replace the Constitution will be the infidel worthy of death. Thank you for acknowledging Californians migrating east is ruining America with their horrible values. Charles, I think we have very different worldviews. And Charles, I'm just going to say thank you for commenting. I'm glad you're listening. I respect that we have differences. I would encourage you to spend more time in the data because I don't think your interpretations match the data for what's happening in America.

Mormon Church Leaders and Political Positioning

Meggan Hayes [02:37:46] Yeah. Hey, I was born in California and now I live in Texas.

John Dehlin [02:37:51] Yeah, I mean, a lot of the Californians that moved to Texas were like Elon Musk, Silicon Valley, MAGA people. A lot of the people that moved to Texas were that demographic from California, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:38:06] Right. Yeah. They actually wanted, you know, tax breaks or land use differences and they wanted to take their big companies here. That California was like, hold on, let's think about the environmental impact of this. And then they came to Texas. And so now there are a lot of people who are like, oh, all of you who fled California to come to Texas, you might be putting up with a few people who are going to question you about your business practices.

John Dehlin [02:38:33] Yeah. Couple other comments. Mama Ang O one Whatever. Why says I want to know if the church supports Zionism? I don't think the official church speaks about that now in modern times because the modern LDS Church leadership doesn't speak about anything interesting or relevant lately other than like, don't gamble as a way to, to throw people's attention off the protecting of child abusers and the, the rampant epidemic of child abuse within the church. Like, what do modern Mormon church leaders stand for today other than like, pay your tithing, don't doubt the church, stay faithful, keep paying your tithing, doubt your doubts, stay in the boat, stay Mormon, stay on the covenant path.

John Dehlin [02:39:37] I, I don't think that modern Mormon church leaders take any interesting political positions, but if I had to scratch the surface, historically, Mormon church leaders are definitely Zionists, historically speaking. And I would say most Mormon church leaders are classically pro Israel, anti Muslim, anti, you know, Arabs, historically speaking.

Meggan Hayes [02:40:05] Do

John Dehlin [02:40:05] you have an opinion about that or thought about that?

Meggan Hayes [02:40:07] No, I think like in the days of the early church, they were a lot more outspoken about such things. And now, yeah, they get up at conference and say the same things they say every time. And there's, there's not revelation, there's not peculiarness, there's nothing passion about things. And

John Dehlin [02:40:30] they're definitely not sticking their neck out on, on political issues, on, you know, immigrants, on treatment of immigrants, on vote, you know, the voting on democracy. I mean, they are a little bit, I mean, oaks There have been a few general conference talks trying to talk about democracy, but generally speaking, they say less and less other than pay your tithing, obey, don't lose your faith, stay away from scary apostates. By the way, gays and trans people are bad and women don't get out of place. You know, that's.

Meggan Hayes [02:41:06] Yeah,

John Dehlin [02:41:06] that's, that's what I get. Jeff Wright, 2395 thanks. He's been very supportive today. Catching up on some donations. Religion equals fear and power, authority, control. That's what I Just said, down with fear, let love prevail. Beliefs are assumptions without facts, often against reality and fear based fts. What's fts?

Meggan Hayes [02:41:32] I don't know. I usually have to Google those things or ask my kids.

Are Latter-day Saints Trending More Democratic?

John Dehlin [02:41:35] Okay, all right, well, let's wind down. Let's go with this last slide or two. Meggan, what do we want to say about this next slide?

Meggan Hayes [02:41:44] Okay, let's see. Alex said if the CHEP survey is correct, it would be a large group of LDs disaffiliating with the Republican label, which would signal even further distancing than has already happened. If the CNN survey is correct, this would be more status quo. Around 70% of LDS being Republican has been a pretty stable number over the years. He said. I do think the CNN survey is more likely. Right. Given that ARPA puts Republican lien affiliation among all LDs, not voters, only at around 70%. Yeah.

John Dehlin [02:42:19] So what I hear Alex saying is if we had to go between like faithful orthodox Mormons are still amongst the most super maga Trumpy people in America versus they're becoming a lot more moderate and liberal and progressive and Democrat. He, he leans towards the former, not the latter, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:42:40] Yep.

John Dehlin [02:42:42] Yeah. And I mean, I think that's, that's most likely true. And, and basically all the Mormons that are becoming liberal and Democrat are leaving the church and no longer identifying as Mormons.

Meggan Hayes [02:42:56] Well, and if they're young folks, right? Like if they're in their early 20s and they're graduating from college and they're going out to do their careers, they might also just be leaving Utah.

John Dehlin [02:43:07] Right? Yeah. And I know that's happening. Like people in my own family have left Utah because they just don't feel like it's culturally, politically hospitable to their values. And so I think a lot of people are fleeing Utah for those reasons.

Meggan Hayes [02:43:26] Plus it's so expensive there,

John Dehlin [02:43:28] Utah.

Meggan Hayes [02:43:29] It's expensive. The housing market, I don't think like groceries and I mean gas is more expensive there than here, but the housing market there is just wild to me. So

John Dehlin [02:43:38] all those Californians moving here, jacking up, buying up with the homes and jacking up the prices, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:43:42] Yep. I know. They

John Dehlin [02:43:44] all the multi generational Mormon families that want to move back to their neighborhoods where they grew up and settle, living around grandma and grandpa and aunts and uncles and cousins, like, right?

Meggan Hayes [02:43:58] Yeah. Oh yeah, I know. Well, and that's the thing, like when Donnie and I were first starting out, we, you know, we were super Mormon. We wanted to live in Utah, but we couldn't compete with the doctors and dentists and lawyers who were trying to buy up the same houses that we would have been looking at. Yeah. So, yeah, we had to go somewhere else.

John Dehlin [02:44:19] Yeah. Also, along the Wasatch front, we're running out of places to build. Like, that's another problem. Like, if it weren't for Geneva Steel going under and them having to rebuild that toxic pit dump of. Of a steel mill into all those new neighborhoods that are popping up in, I don't know, northwest Utah county, there wouldn't be anywhere to build.

Meggan Hayes [02:44:42] Yeah, yeah, it's built out. Unless you want to commute an hour or two to work every day.

John Dehlin [02:44:47] Riverton and Daybreak and Twilla and, you know, northwest Utah County.

Meggan Hayes [02:44:55] That's

John Dehlin [02:44:55] where there's any building left, really. All right, what's Alex. Alex's bottom line?

Meggan Hayes [02:45:01] Did Latter Day Saints join the blue wave? Yes, likely so, though we will get a better idea when the CES is released in April. The highest 20 LDS congressional districts and counties in Utah and Idaho all swung left, and some by a lot. Also, if the CA survey is correct, LDs may have shifted a bit in party identification away from the Republican Party. But let's verify this finding with future surveys. Important caveats Alex lists religion data are several years old, county to district allocation is estimated, and church membership records likely overcount true active LDS adherence because records can remain after disaffiliation. So did it go blue? It pushed that way. Was it this massive overhaul and everyone's blue now? No.

John Dehlin [02:45:50] Are Mormons still among the most maga, Republican, you know, religions in America?

Meggan Hayes [02:45:56] Yes,

John Dehlin [02:45:56] absolutely. Only white evangelicals beat us. I did one final little analysis. I want to know what percentage of Utah congressmen, Utah state congressmen vote went Democrat. And I. Maybe we already covered this, but 38 of 75 Utah legislative districts went Democrat.

Meggan Hayes [02:46:29] Okay, 38 of 75.

John Dehlin [02:46:33] 38 of the. Of the 75 seats in the Utah House of Representatives. So. So about 35 of 75 House districts and 8 of 29 Senate districts are on track to be Democrat. Yeah. So I don't know what the percentages are there. So 43. Does that sound right? 43% now.

Meggan Hayes [02:47:03] Yeah, I look. And is that what we were talking about? We were talking about the majority versus super majority. Yeah,

John Dehlin [02:47:08] yeah, yeah. Anyway. All right, well, we did it. We did almost three hours of talking politics and Mormonism, the midterms, maga, Democrats, blueness, redness, Mormonism. I hope people didn't hate it. We've got a pretty good live audience right now. 445 people. We would love everyone's email feedback if they liked this or hated it. We want to remind you all that we're going to like, take a potty break and we're going to start right back up with, with what Meggan also planned for today's episode, which is all the rest of the non political Mormon news for the week. Do you want to give us a heads up on what we're going to talk about, Meggan?

News Update, Listener Chat, and Closing Thoughts

Meggan Hayes [02:47:50] We're going to start right off by talking about Becky Squire's recent video. She is a pro LDS influencer and she was talking about how her and her husband, who is a bishop, navigate bishop interviews with children. And from my point of view, she has some pretty disturbing things to say about grown men interviewing young kids behind closed doors. So that's what we're going to start off with.

John Dehlin [02:48:17] Do Bishop stand for Jesus? Quentin Cook comes out talking about how anonymity on the Internet is evil. I can't. I haven't seen the slide deck yet. Jared Harding Wilson. Who's Jared Wilson?

Meggan Hayes [02:48:30] Oh, you're not going to like that one, John.

John Dehlin [02:48:32] Okay.

Meggan Hayes [02:48:33] It's another abuse case against the church.

John Dehlin [02:48:36] Oh, what? There's another child abuse case on the Mormon News podcast show.

Meggan Hayes [02:48:42] I know. So this one, I mean, it's historical, but the church is now getting sued because of it.

John Dehlin [02:48:48] Okay. And then we're going to talk about Cody Wyoming Temple and Nate Apfel on Soft White Underbelly

Meggan Hayes [02:48:56] and

John Dehlin [02:48:56] some sports news. So all the great Mormon news right around the bend. I want to thank all our, all the, all our commenters. Thank you for commenting. Please email us@mormonstoriesmail.com Please like and subscribe Mormon Stories Podcast. And while you do, please like and subscribe. Generally unquotable, please donate to this podcast so that we can pay Meggan more than five bucks an hour. You can donate and become a monthly donor. At mormonnews.com, click on the donate button. Become a monthly donor. Can we get that up to 100, Meggan? Can we just get the number of donors, monthly donors to the show from 75 to 100? Is that asking too much?

Meggan Hayes [02:49:39] I don't think so. I mean, if 30,000 people listen, that's a very small percentage.

John Dehlin [02:49:43] At least, at least 30,000 people listen,

Meggan Hayes [02:49:47] right?

John Dehlin [02:49:48] And again, if you're already a donor to Mormon Stories or generally unquotable, don't worry about it. If you can't afford to donate, don't worry about it. If you can, please sign up and support us. Like and subscribe. Check out mormonnews.com for all. All your daily weekly Mormon news and don't go away. In five minutes or so, come right back to YouTube where we're gonna. Where we're gonna start up the rest of the News for Mormon News podcast here on Mormon Stories Podcast. Anything else you wanna say, Meggan, before we sign off?

Meggan Hayes [02:50:27] I think this was amazing. Thank you to everyone in the chat for engaging with us in conversations that we need to have. Thank you. It's a big deal to show up.

John Dehlin [02:50:36] Yeah. And again, if you know more about political news and Mormonism, Utah political news and Mormonism. Dem. If you're. If you hate everything we said today and you want to do a panel episode of maga, ex Mormon Republicans argue with Meggan and John about how they suck. I will do that episode.

Meggan Hayes [02:51:00] Yep. I would show up for that. I don't. I can listen really well.

John Dehlin [02:51:05] Yeah. And I can have constructive dialogue with people who I disagree with.

Meggan Hayes [02:51:10] Absolutely.

John Dehlin [02:51:11] And if you're a Democrat, Mormon, ex Mormon, and you want to talk about how we got blue wrong and Democrats wrong and liberalism wrong, I'm up for that, too. So anyway, thanks, Meggan. You do brilliant work.

Meggan Hayes [02:51:27] Thank you. This is so fun.

John Dehlin [02:51:29] I'm having fun. I

Meggan Hayes [02:51:31] love.

John Dehlin [02:51:33] All right, thanks everyone for joining us today. Thanks for joining some Mormon Stories. Be good to each other, be kind to each other, and we'll see you all again soon on generally unquotable on Mormon Stories podcast and most importantly, on Mormon News podcast. Come back right now for part two of our episode. Take care, everybody.

Transcript © 2026 John P. Dehlin. All rights reserved. Brief quotations are welcome with attribution and a link to mormonstories.org; all other use requires written permission.